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El "Efecto Holandés" en Chile: Heterogeneidad en competitividad y dinámica macroeconómica

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  • Mario Giarda
  • Óscar Landerretche

Abstract

En este artículo construimos medidas de tipos de cambio real sectoriales para la economía chilena. Encontramos que hay significativa heterogeneidad en los TCR sectoriales, importantes cambios en esa heterogeneidad y en las posiciones relativas de los sectores para el período 2000-2010.Usando los TCR sectorial, construimos una medida de varianza inter-sectorial como indicador de la heterogeneidad en condiciones de competitividad de los sectores económicos. Introducimos esta medida en un modelo VAR estándar de la economía chilena. Descubrimos que un shock de una desviación estándar a la heterogeneidad en competitividad genera una caída máxima en el crecimiento económico de entre 1.5 % a 2.5 % con una persistencia de entre uno a tres años. Finalmente usamos esta medida de heterogeneidad en condiciones de competitividad para estimar modelos VAR sectoriales. Encontramos que los sectores perdedores son: agricultura, alimentos, pesca, papel, químicos y posiblemente madera. Los sectores ganadores son quizás no muy sorprendentemente: minería no cobre, manufacturas metálicas y quizás manufacturas de maquinarias

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Giarda & Óscar Landerretche, 2011. "El "Efecto Holandés" en Chile: Heterogeneidad en competitividad y dinámica macroeconómica," Working Papers wp343, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp343
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