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An Alternative Model for the Trade Balance of Countries with Open Economies: The Spanish Case

  • Luis Sastre

    ()

    (Department of Economic Analysis (UNED))

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    The aim of this work is to presents an alternative to the traditional models used to explain the behaviour of the trade balance in Spain. This model could be useful for others medium sized and fairly open countries. The specification highlights both, first the simultaneous and direct interdependence of exports and imports flows, and second the countercyclical impact of the domestic demand on exports and the impact of investment on imports and some of its theoretical implications. Non linear simultaneous estimation, cointegration techniques, and a battery of specification tests are the econometric tools applied in the paper. El principal objetivo de este trabajo es ofrecer una alternativa a los modelos tradicionales utilizados para explicar el comportamiento de la balanza comercial en España, aunque el modelo presentado puede ser también útil para otras economías de tamaño medio y abiertas al exterior. La especificación utilizada destaca, en primer lugar, la interdependencia simultánea y directa de los flujos de exportación e importación, y en segundo lugar, el impacto contracíclico de la demanda interna sobre las exportaciones, y el impacto de la inversión sobre las importaciones, así como algunas de sus implicaciones teóricas. Las técnicas econométricas empleadas son ecuaciones simultáneas no lineales, cointegración y un conjunto de test de especificación.

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    File URL: http://eprints.ucm.es/10532/1/WP_02-05.pdf
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    Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales in its series Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales with number 02-05.

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    Length: 22 pages
    Date of creation: 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ucm:wpaper:02-05
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    1. Jose Antonio Alonso, 1999. "Growth and the external constraint: lessons from the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 245-253.
    2. Pack, Howard & Saggi, Kamal, 1997. "Inflows of Foreign Technology and Indigenous Technological Development," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 81-98, February.
    3. Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1994. "Modelling Linear Dynamic Econometric Systems," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
    4. Ana Buisan & Esther Gordo, 1994. "Funciones de importación y exportación de la economía española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 18(1), pages 165-192, January.
    5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    6. Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 1992. "Identification of the Long-Run and the Short-Run Structure: An Application to the ISLM Model," Discussion Papers 92-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    8. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107, March.
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