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Nonlinearity and stationarity of inflation rates: Evidence from the euro-zone countries

  • Su Zhou

    (The University of Texas at San Antonio)

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    Few studies have empirically examined the possibility of nonlinearity in inflation and tested nonlinear stationarity of the inflation rates. The present study thus intends to fill the gap. The study examines the hypothesis that, for a group of countries having exercised target-zone type stabilization policies with their inflation eventually converging to similar low levels, their inflation rates would have stationary behavior. When the sample includes periods where inflation control is an alternative objective to other objectives of policymakers and central banks respond to inflation actively only when inflation deviations from the target range become large, non-linearity may exist in inflation. The hypothesis is tested for a sample over the floating exchange rate period for 12 European countries that formed the euro zone later in the sample period. The results suggest that the majority of these countries’ inflation rates can be characterized by mean reversion during the sample period. Many of them appear to be nonlinearly stationary. This finding is essential in conducting applied economic studies for these countries, when constructing models whose validity relies on whether or not inflation is stationary.

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    File URL: http://business.utsa.edu/wps/eco/0006ECO-106-2010.pdf
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    Paper provided by College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio in its series Working Papers with number 0006.

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    Length: 18 pages
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    Handle: RePEc:tsa:wpaper:0106
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    1. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207, March.
    2. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    3. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Inflation zone targeting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1387, June.
    4. Wojciech Charemza & Daniela Hristova & Peter Burridge, 2005. "Is inflation stationary?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 901-903.
    5. Westbrook, Jilleen R, 1998. "Monetary Integration, Inflation Convergence and Output Shocks in the European Monetary System," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(1), pages 138-44, January.
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    7. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
    8. Lambertini, Luisa & Miller, Marcus & Sutherland, Alan, 1991. "Inflation Convergence with Realignments in a Two-Speed Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 597, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Evans, Martin D D & Lewis, Karen K, 1995. " Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 225-53, March.
    10. Michael J. Artis & Mark P. Taylor, 1994. "The Stabilizing Effect of the ERM on Exchange Rates and Interest Rates: Some Nonparametric Tests," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(1), pages 123-148, March.
    11. Domenech, Rafael & Ledo, Mayte & Taguas, David, 2002. "Some new results on interest rate rules in EMU and in the US," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 431-446.
    12. Culver, Sarah E & Papell, David H, 1997. "Is There a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate? Evidence from Sequential Break and Panel Data Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 435-44, July-Aug..
    13. Janet L. Yellen & George A. Akerlof, 2006. "Stabilization Policy: A Reconsideration," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 1-22, January.
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