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La vulnerabilite des pays mediterraneens aux chocs des prix des matieres premieres

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  • Serge REY

Abstract

Cet article a pour objet de mesurer la vulnérabilité des Pays du Sud et de l'Est Méditerranéen (PSEM ; 20 pays) aux variations de prix des matières premières, et en particulier du pétrole. On retient deux approches, l'une qui se réfère à des ratios de vulnérabilité/dépendance, l'autre à un modèle autorégressif vectoriel. On montre que les principaux pays exportateurs de pétrole sont les plus vulnérables, et ce quelle que soit la mesure de la vulnérabilité. De plus, à partir d'un modèle VAR, on conclut qu'une hausse du prix réel du pétrole a un impact fortement positif sur le PIB réel par tête de 7 pays, faiblement positif pour 5 pays, négatif pour 3 pays, et quasiment nul pour 3 autres. Il ressort de cette analyse que la simple observation de ratios de vulnérabilité n'est pas suffisante pour rendre compte des effets de chocs de prix. Aussi, une modélisation VAR complète est mieux à même de préciser à la fois la réponse du niveau d'activité aux chocs de prix, mais aussi les mécanismes de transmission par lesquels les effets de ces chocs se sont propagés.

Suggested Citation

  • Serge REY, 2010. "La vulnerabilite des pays mediterraneens aux chocs des prix des matieres premieres," Working Papers 2010-2011_2, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Nov 2010.
  • Handle: RePEc:tac:wpaper:2010-2011_2
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    File URL: http://gtl.univ-pau.fr/travaux/F_2010_2011_2DocWcattVulnerabilitePaysMediterraneensPxMatPremieresSRey.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    PSEM; vulnérabilité; dépendance; pétrole; énergie; chocs de prix; modèle VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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