Linkages: economic analysis of agriculture in the wider economy
This thesis consists of five papers, each contributing to an understanding of the role of agriculture in the wider economy, with particular emphasis on evaluation of the common agricultural policy (CAP). The first of these papers investigates the economic linkages between agriculture and the wider economy in Sweden. We develop a method for disaggregating the agricultural sector in the Swedish input-output (IO) table. Output multipliers are generally higher for livestock sectors compared to crop production and range between 1.52 and 2.20 for the open model. In the second study we develop a method for overcoming the aggregation bias associated with aggregated IO tables. Aggregation bias can be as large as 5-6 percent for agricultural sectors in a Swedish region and can be dealt with using limited and more available data to construct a disaggregated IO shock. We demonstrate how such an approach can be used for modelling reforms to the CAP. This approach minimises bias without the time and money required to do a full disaggregation of agriculture. The third paper deal with non-survey IO regionalisation. We reveal that the foundations are weak for applying standard location quotients to tables of indirect allocation of imports, so called technological coefficients. We demonstrate the sensitivity in regional multiplier analysis from doing so, using six different regional IO tables. Even the location quotient that scale down national IO coefficients the most show on average 12 percent higher regional multipliers when national technological coefficients are adjusted, rather than national trade coefficients. The fourth paper investigates the scope of hybrid governance in relation to agri-environmental and rural development policies of the CAP. We combine a survey, a case study and a stakeholder discussion and show benefits in both process and outcome that could possibly be utilised to a larger extent in implementing and developing the policy. In the fifth and final study we investigated the role of agricultural policies, specifically the environmental and rural development policies of the CAP, in promoting sustainable rural development. 20 stakeholder interviews were performed to evaluate the possibilities for agriculture and current policies to fulfil this role. One result is that environmental programs support many aspects of rural development, for instance by making some types of diversification possible.
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