Market fundamentals versus speculative bubbles. A new test applied to the German hyperinflation
We develop and apply a method of testing for speculative bubbles. The method is designed to overcome two well-known problems in the identification of bubble phenomena--the problem of distinguishing any type of bubble from an expected future change in market fundamentals and the problem of detecting a periodically-collapsing bubble when the residuals of the fundamentals regression are integrated. We propose the strategy of estimating a switching regime model of market prices, partialling out expected changes in fundamentals and carefully analysing the properties of the residuals. Extending our analysis, we also propose a more direct test for bubbles, based on the estimation of the general (fundamentals-plus-bubble) solution for market prices. We apply our methodology to the study of German hyperinflation in the 1920s. We find evidence consistent with the existence of a bubble during that hyperinflation. Copyright @ 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||01 Jan 1992|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ|
Phone: (+44) 23 80592537
Fax: (+44) 23 80593858
Web page: http://www.economics.soton.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:stn:sotoec:9208. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Thorn)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Chris Thorn to update the entry or send us the correct email address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.