IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does the impact of active labor market programs depend on the state of the labor market? The case of the UK new deal for young people


  • McVicar, Duncan
  • Podivinsky, Jan M.


There is much debate, but surprisingly little evidence, concerning the impact of primarily supply side Welfare to Work programmes in labour markets characterised by weak labour demand. The usual argument is that we might expect Welfare to Work measures to have greater impacts in tight labour markets than in slack ones because more (and perhaps better) job vacancies exist. On the other hand, the added value of such programmes may be lower in tighter labour markets. There may also be heterogeneous programme impacts if the characteristics of the unemployed differ across labour markets. In this paper we explore whether a compulsory Welfare to Work programme for unemployed young people introduced in 1998 – the UK New Deal for Young People – has had differential impacts on the probability of unemployment exits in different local labour markets. Our results show this to be the case, with the programme impact on the hazard rate for exits from unemployment increasing with the local unemployment rate. Disaggregating exits by destinations, however, shows that there exists a negative (positive) relationship between local unemployment rates and the size of the programme impact on the probability of exit to employment (inactivity). Keywords; new deal for young people, mixed proportional hazard models, unemployment, labor demand, competing risks

Suggested Citation

  • McVicar, Duncan & Podivinsky, Jan M., 2007. "Does the impact of active labor market programs depend on the state of the labor market? The case of the UK new deal for young people," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 42748, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  • Handle: RePEc:stn:sotoec:42748

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. David Neumark & William Wascher, 1995. "The Effects of Minimum Wages on Teenage Employment and Enrollment: Evidence from Matched CPS Surveys," NBER Working Papers 5092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 1998. "Life Cycle Schooling and Dynamic Selection Bias: Models and Evidence for Five Cohorts of American Males," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 262-333, April.
    3. David Card, 1992. "Do Minimum Wages Reduce Employment? A Case Study of California, 1987–89," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 46(1), pages 38-54, October.
    4. Neumark, David & Wascher, William, 1995. "Minimum Wage Effects on Employment and School Enrollment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(2), pages 199-206, April.
    5. Neumark, David & Wascher, William, 1995. "Minimum-Wage Effects on School and Work Transitions of Teenagers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 244-249, May.
    6. Patricia Rice, 1999. "The impact of local labour markets on investment in further education: Evidence from the England and Wales youth cohort studies," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 287-312.
    7. Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 1998. "Life Cycle Schooling and Dynamic Selection Bias: Models and Evidence for Five Cohorts," NBER Working Papers 6385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Fishe, Raymond P. H. & Trost, R. P. & Lurie, Philip M., 1981. "Labor force earnings and college choice of young women: An examination of selectivity bias and comparative advantage," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 169-191, April.
    9. Michele Campolieti & Tony Fang & Morley Gunderson, 2005. "Minimum wage impacts on youth employment transitions, 1993-1999," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(1), pages 81-104, February.
    10. Stuart Landon, 1997. "High School Enrollment, Minimum Wages and Education Spending," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 23(2), pages 141-163, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:stn:sotoec:42748. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Thorn). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.