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Subjective return expectations, information and stock market participation: evidence from France

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  • Arrondel, Luc
  • Calvo-Pardo, Hector

Abstract

Recent research has separately uncovered that stock ownership strongly correlates with both expectations and realizations of stock market returns, as well as with measures of financial literacy, ability or trust. This paper reconciles all, and reports new findings from a unique survey containing individual level data on both expectations and (knowledge of) realizations for a representative sample by age and wealth. Stock market participation monotonically increases with the conditional expectation of a positive stock market return, even among the a­ uent and the young. Information is very heterogeneous, increases with age and own past experience, andidentifies a causal effect of expectations on stock ownership.

Suggested Citation

  • Arrondel, Luc & Calvo-Pardo, Hector, 2014. "Subjective return expectations, information and stock market participation: evidence from France," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 1415, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  • Handle: RePEc:stn:sotoec:1415
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    File URL: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/368212/1/1415%2520combined.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2008. "Trusting the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2557-2600, December.
    2. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2005. "Awareness and Stock Market Participation," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 9(4), pages 537-567.
    3. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2007. "Expected Equity Returns and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 369-379, 04-05.
    4. Annamaria Lusardi, 2008. "Financial Literacy: An Essential Tool for Informed Consumer Choice?," NFI Working Papers 2008-WP-13, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    5. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Social Interaction and Stock-Market Participation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 137-163, February.
    6. Paul A. Samuelson, 2011. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 31, pages 465-472 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6829 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju & Juhani Linnainmaa, 2011. "IQ and Stock Market Participation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 2121-2164, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Boram & Rosenthal, Leonard & Veld, Chris & Veld-Merkoulova, Yulia, 2015. "Stock market expectations and risk aversion of individual investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 122-131.
    2. Michael Haliassos & Hector F. CALVO PARDO & Chryssi Giannitsarou & Luc Arrondel, 2016. "Informative Social Interactions," 2016 Meeting Papers 636, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Steffen Huck & Tobias Schmidt & Georg Weizsäcker, 2014. "The Standard Portfolio Choice Problem in Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 650, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    4. Ashok Thomas & Luca Spataro, 2015. "Financial Literacy, Human Capital and Stock Market Participation in Europe: An Empirical Exercise under Endogenous Framework," Discussion Papers 2015/194, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Barth, Daniel & Papageorge, Nicholas W. & Thom, Kevin, 2017. "Genetic Ability, Wealth, and Financial Decision-Making," IZA Discussion Papers 10567, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. repec:vul:omefvu:v:8:y:2017:i:2:id:234 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gabriel Desgranges & Stéphane Gauthier, 2013. "Asymmetric information and rationalizability," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 54(3), pages 789-804, November.
    8. Olympia Bover, 2015. "Measuring expectations from household surveys: new results on subjective probabilities of future house prices," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 361-405, November.
    9. repec:vul:omefvu:v:9:y:2017:i:2:id:234 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bucciol, Alessandro & Miniaci, Raffaele & Pastorello, Sergio, 2017. "Return expectations and risk aversion heterogeneity in household portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 201-219.

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