The dynamics of public opinion under majority rules
This note explains the process of public opinion formation via a locally interactive, space-time analysis. The model we use is a special case of the general framework for modelling social interaction proposed in Blume and Durlauf (2001). In the reduced form of the model we study how each individual, when faced with the choice of one, out of two, opinions, tends to conform to the opinion held by the majority of her neighbours. We consider different, symmetric and asymmetric, majority rules. Depending on the specific behavioral rule, the aggregate process of opinion formation may display contagion on one specific opinion, or consensus among all individuals in the population, or co-existence of both opinions. Whenever consensus obtains, we observe the formation of homogeneous areas (clusters) that seem almost stationary along the dynamics. Keywords; majority rules, public opinion, contagion, co-existence, clustering, local interaction
|Date of creation:||01 Jan 2001|
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- Brock, William A & Durlauf, Steven N, 2001.
"Discrete Choice with Social Interactions,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 235-60, April.
- Lee, In Ho & Valentinyi, Akos, 2000. "Noisy Contagion without Mutation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 47-56, January.
- Ianni, Antonella & Corradi, Valentina, 2000. "Consensus, contagion and clustering in a space-time model of public opinion formation," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0009, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
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