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Taux de change d'équilibre et politiques économiques : Une approche contingente

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Bouveret

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Bruno Ducoudre

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

Les théories du taux de change d’équilibre supposent que le taux de change réel d’équilibre (tcre) est indépendant de l’équilibre interne et des politiques économiques. Nous développons un modèle dans lequel les politiques économiques sont issues de la minimisation de fonctions de perte intertemporelles, et nous montrons que, dans un cadre Wage Setting-Price Setting (ws-ps), le tcre dépend des objectifs des autorités, ce qui remet en cause les hypothèses précédentes. Dans notre modèle, le taux de change réel de long terme (d’équilibre) est contingent aux préférences des autorités. Cela implique que les estimations de tcre doivent être considérées avec prudence.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Bouveret & Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Taux de change d'équilibre et politiques économiques : Une approche contingente," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/9866, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/9866
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    Keywords

    Politique économique; Taux de change;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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