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Taux de change d'équilibre et politiques économiques : Une approche contingente

Listed author(s):
  • Antoine Bouveret

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Bruno Ducoudre

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Les théories du taux de change d’équilibre supposent que le taux de change réel d’équilibre (tcre) est indépendant de l’équilibre interne et des politiques économiques. Nous développons un modèle dans lequel les politiques économiques sont issues de la minimisation de fonctions de perte intertemporelles, et nous montrons que, dans un cadre Wage Setting-Price Setting (ws-ps), le tcre dépend des objectifs des autorités, ce qui remet en cause les hypothèses précédentes. Dans notre modèle, le taux de change réel de long terme (d’équilibre) est contingent aux préférences des autorités. Cela implique que les estimations de tcre doivent être considérées avec prudence.

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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/9866.

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Date of creation: 2008
Publication status: Published in Revue économique, 2008, vol. 59, pp.551-560
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/9866
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