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L'importance des exclus de l'intégration monétaire en Europe

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  • Philippe Martin

Abstract

Contrairement à l'analyse traditionnelle, nous analysons les coûts associés non pas à l'inclusion mais à l'exclusion d'un pays de l'Union économique et monétaire européenne (UEM). Dans un modèle à trois pays, nous montrons que la politique monétaire du pays exclu sera plus expansionniste et plus contre-cyclique que celle des pays de l'UEM, ce qui la rapproche d'une stratégie de dépréciation compétitive. Le pays dont les chocs sont les plus symétriques à ceux du pays exclu sera le plus touché par cette exclusion voyant la variance de sa production augmenter. Nous examinons aussi les diverses propositions de gestion des relations entre l'UEM et les pays non UEM de VUE.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Martin, 1996. "L'importance des exclus de l'intégration monétaire en Europe," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/9345, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/9345
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    2. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    3. Philippe Martin & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 1995. "The Geography of Multi-Speed Europe," Sciences Po publications DP1292, Sciences Po.
    4. Martin, Philippe, 1996. "A sequential approach to regional integration: The European Union and Central and Eastern Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 581-598, December.
    5. Artus, P., 1995. "L'Union monetaire sera-t-elle attrayante pour les pays peripheriques europeens?," Papers 1995-12/t, Caisse des Depots et Consignations - Cahiers de recherche.
    6. Dominique Pianelli, 1994. "L'après CAEM : la dynamique des échanges entre les pays de Visegrad," Working Papers 1994-16, CEPII research center.
    7. Martin, Philippe, 1994. "Monetary policy and country size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 573-586, October.
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9347 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Martin, Philippe, 1995. "Free-riding, convergence and two-speed monetary unification in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 1345-1364, August.
    10. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1993. "Designing institutions for monetary stability," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 53-84, December.
    11. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-167, March.
    12. Eichengreen, Barry & Ghironi, Fabio, 1995. "European Monetary Unification: The Challenges Ahead," CEPR Discussion Papers 1217, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ottilia Rouguet & Pierre Villa, 2000. "Le passage des retraites de la répartition à la capitalisation obligatoire : des simulations à l'aide s'une maquette calibrée," Working Papers 2000-02, CEPII research center.
    2. Thierry Warin, 2006. "A Note on Post-Modern Monetary Policy," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0617, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
    3. Kiichiro Fukasaku & David Martineau, 1999. "Coopération monétaire en Asie de l'Est : l'apport des tests de causalité et de la cointégration," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 140(4), pages 105-116.
    4. Thierry Warin, 2005. "Monetary Policy: From Theory to Practices," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0508, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

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