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Hiv/Aids And Poverty In South Africa: A Bayesian Estimation Of Selection Models With Correlated Fixed-Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Fabrice Murtin

    (Departement d'Economie de Sciences Po)

  • Federica Marzo

    (World Bank)

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the causal impact of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) on monetary poverty using a panel database from South Africa. We treat endogeneity and selection problems associated with HIV/AIDS by a selection model that includes correlated fixed effects both in the level and in the participation equations, which are estimated simultaneously via original Bayesian methods. We model the consequences of the illness on both labour income and income transfers, and disentangle between urban and rural households. While no significant impact of HIV/AIDS on labour income is found because of households' recomposition, we find a substantial fall in received transfers among rural population and a dramatic increase in chronic poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrice Murtin & Federica Marzo, 2013. "Hiv/Aids And Poverty In South Africa: A Bayesian Estimation Of Selection Models With Correlated Fixed-Effects," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5lbapr8bjc8, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5lbapr8bjc81qrd7pa70f0iqp1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    HIV/AIDS; Poverty; South Africa; Bayesnian Estimation; Monte Carlo Markov Chain; Hybrid Gibbs Sampling;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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