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La macroéconomie à l'heure de la stagnation séculaire

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  • Gilles Le Garrec

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Vincent Touze

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

La « grande récession » amorcée en 2008 a plongé l'économie dans une stagnation durable avec un fort chômage, une production dépréciée et une très faible inflation. Cette crise dont la durée exceptionnelle est difficilement explicable par les outils théoriques de la macroéconomie contemporaine invite à enrichir l'analyse fondamentale. Conceptualiser la stagnation séculaire repose alors sur l'introduction d'imperfections de marché telles qu'un rationnement du crédit sur le marché financier ainsi que des rigidités nominales sur le marché du travail. L'équilibre obtenu se caractérise par un sous-emploi des facteurs de production (chômage élevé, faible accumulation de capital) associé à une baisse des prix (déflation) et une politique monétaire inactive car contrainte par la non négativité du taux directeur. En régime de stagnation séculaire, l'impact des politiques économiques s'en trouve affecté et de nombreuses propriétés keynésiennes apparaissent : impact déflationniste des politiques d'offre, politique monétaire conventionnelle inopérante et effet positif de la dépense publique quoique limité par une éviction de l'investissement privé.

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  • Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touze, 2017. "La macroéconomie à l'heure de la stagnation séculaire," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/53mu57n92f9, Sciences Po.
    • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/53mu57n92f9ir8pv4cpba1kkba
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    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7or101vbj88nqh5qhkjajpl2f is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2018. "Prélèvement à la source de l’impôt sur le revenu et année de transition. Quel impact pour les finances publiques et l’équité intergénérationnelle ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 128(6), pages 1199-1234.
    3. Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2018. "Prélèvement à la source de l'impôt sur le revenu et année de transition : quel impact pour les finances publiques et l'équité intergénérationnelle ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03444408, HAL.
    4. Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touze, 2018. "Prélèvement à la source de l'impôt sur le revenu et année de transition : quel impact pour les finances publiques et l'équité générationelle ?," Sciences Po publications 20, Sciences Po.
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