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Evaluation interdisciplinaire des impacts du CICE en matière de compétitivité internationale, d'investissement, d'emploi, de résultat net des entreprises et de salaires

Listed author(s):
  • Clément Carbonnier

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France)

  • Gwenaële Rot

    (Centre de sociologie des organisations)

  • Clément Malgouyres

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France)

Le crédit d'impôt pour la compétitivité et l'emploi (CICE) a été institué avec l'objectif d'améliorer la compétitivité des entreprises. Pour étudier les différents effets potentiels du CICE (appropriation du dispositif, effets sur l'emploi, les salaires, l'investissement, les exportations), l'évaluation présentée ici combine deux méthodologies issues de la sociologie d'une part et de l'économie d'autre part. Ce type de dialogue est rarement menée en sciences sociales, ce qui fait de cette évaluation du LIEPP un objet scientifique unique. Une enquête de terrain auprès des décisionnaires d'entreprises indique que le recours au CICE a été important et automatique, sans que les dirigeants et décisionnaires des entreprises ne réalisent nécessairement le lien avec l'emploi. Le décalage temporel et comptable de la forme de crédit d'impôt notamment est susceptible de diminuer l'impact potentiel du CICE sur les comportements des entreprises. L'analyse microéconométrique sur des données sociales et fiscales d'entreprises fait apparaitre que, comparativement aux entreprises moins intensément ciblées par le CICE, les entreprises les plus intensément ciblées par le CICE n'ont pas connu de hausse des exportations, des investissements ou de l'emploi en 2013 et en 2014. Leur résultat net s'est en revanche relevé grâce au CICE. Ce résultat net a été en partie redistribué sous forme de salaire : le salaire horaire a davantage augment e dans les entreprises bénéficiant plus du CICE, toutes choses égales par ailleurs. Les conclusions de cette évaluation ne portent que sur les deux premières années de mise en place du CICE, les données 2015 et 2016 n'étant pas encore disponibles. Il convient enfin de préciser la difficulté de toute étude portant sur le CICE : celui-ci n'a pas été conçu de manière à être évalué par un dispositif expérimental.

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Date of creation: Sep 2016
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4v8c8tnfgu8g392dpm6uaefuus
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