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Exchange Rates and Monetary Spillovers

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  • Guillaume Plantin

    (Département d'économie)

  • Hyun Song Shin

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

When do flexible exchange rates prevent monetary and financial conditions from spilling over across currencies? We examine a model in which international investors strategically supply capital to a small inflation‐targeting economy with flexible exchange rates. For some combination of parameters, the unique equilibrium exhibits the observed empirical feature of prolonged episodes of capital inflows and appreciation of the domestic currency, followed by reversals where capital outflows go hand‐in‐hand with currency depreciation, a rise in domestic interest rates, and inflationary pressure. Arbitrarily small shocks to global financial conditions suffice to trigger these dynamics.

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  • Guillaume Plantin & Hyun Song Shin, 2018. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Spillovers," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/425hdq96dn9, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/425hdq96dn97t84knejpafl2p7
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    Cited by:

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    2. Martina Jašová & Richhild Moessner & Elöd Takáts, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 27-58, September.
    3. Yang Zhao & Zichun Xu, 2021. "The Impact of Cross-Border Capital Flows on the Chinese Banking System," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    4. Siklos, Pierre L., 2018. "Boom-and-bust cycles in emerging markets: How important is the exchange rate?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 172-187.
    5. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Sovereign yields and the risk-taking channel of currency appreciation," BIS Working Papers 538, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Bernardo Guimaraes & Caio Machado & Ana E. Pereira, 2020. "Dynamic coordination with timing frictions: Theory and applications," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(3), pages 656-697, June.
    7. Hasselgren, Anton & Peltomäki, Jarkko & Graham, Michael, 2020. "Speculator activity and the cross-asset predictability of FX returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Goczek, Łukasz & Partyka, Karol J., 2019. "Too small to be independent? On the influence of ECB monetary policy on interest rates of the EEA countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 180-191.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency appreciation; Capital flows; Global games;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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