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La désinflation manquante : un phénomène américain uniquement ?

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Hubert

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Mathilde Le Moigne

    (École normale supérieure - Paris)

Abstract

Le comportement de l’inflation aux États-Unis lors de la crise économique de 2008-2009, qui n’a pas suivi les prédictions d’une courbe de Phillips classique, a donné lieu au phénomène de « missing disinflation ». Nous évaluons si ce phénomène a également eu lieu en zone euro. Nous trouvons que l’inflation en zone euro a bien suivi les prédictions d’une courbe de Phillips, mais qu’il existe de fortes divergences intra-européennes, entre d’un côté l’Allemagne et la France, où l’inflation prédite par une courbe de Phillips est proche de l’inflation réalisée, et d’un autre l’Italie, l’Espagne et la Grèce, où dans la période qui précède la crise financière, l’inflation observée n’est pas en ligne avec l’inflation prédite. La crise de 2009 semble avoir réduit partiellement ces déviations.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Hubert & Mathilde Le Moigne, 2016. "La désinflation manquante : un phénomène américain uniquement ?," Sciences Po publications 2016-06, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/22vvo00t2f8m19i410q16bj0e0
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    Keywords

    Inflation; Courbe de Phillips;

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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