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Le secteur des télécommunications surfe-t-il de bulle en bulle ?

Listed author(s):
  • Mathieu Plane

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Le secteur des télécommunications a connu un développement rapide qui s’est accéléré à partir de la deuxième moitié des années 1990, avec l’apparition du GSM et de l’Internet. Mais la croissance réelle du secteur s’est rapidement transformée en une gigantesque bulle financière qui a été à l’origine de l’une des pires crises sectorielles qu’aient connu les économies modernes. Dans cet article, nous essayons d’identifier les facteurs qui ont conduit à une telle valorisation financière des entreprises de télécommunications ainsi que ceux qui ont conduit au retournement des marchés financiers. Enfin, à la veille de la mise en place de l’UMTS, certains éléments nous amènent à penser qu’une nouvelle bulle pourrait se former dans les années à venir. En annexes, nous simulons la rentabilité financière de l’UMTS et évaluons l’impact macroéconomique de ce projet sur les composantes de la croissance française.

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File URL: http://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/2244/resources/reof-088-0151.pdf
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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/2244.

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Date of creation: Jan 2004
Publication status: Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2004, pp.151-184
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2244
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.sciencespo.fr/

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