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Foreign Reserves, Crises and Growth

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  • Gong Cheng

    (Département d'économie)

Abstract

Cette thèse comporte trois chapitres traitant de la question de l’accumulation de réserves de change dans les pays émergents. Sous différents angles, théorique comme empirique, les trois travaux présentés analysent les motivations d’accumulation de réserves de change et testent l’utilité de ces avoirs en devises étrangères pendant la crise financière mondiale de 2009. Le chapitre 1 montre que l’accumulation de réserves résulte de l’interaction entre une forte croissance de la productivité et des frictions sur le marché financier. De plus, l’accumulation de réserves est d’autant plus efficace que les flux de capitaux privés sont contrôlés. Les gains du bien-être issus d’une utilisation combinée de réserves et de contrôles de capitaux diminuent avec le développement des marchés financiers. A l’aide d’une base de données comprenant 112 pays émergents et en voie de développement, le chapitre 2 examine la relation entre l’accumulation de réserves avant la crise de 2009 et la performance économique pendant la crise. Lorsque le ratio d’adéquation de réserves de change est calculé en point de pourcentage par rapport à la dette extérieure à court terme, la performance économique d’un pays pendant la crise est positivement corrélée avec les réserves de change d’avant la crise. Ce chapitre montre aussi les nouvelles tendances dans le comportement d’accumulation des réserves après la crise. Le chapitre 3 traite de la question des effets de bilan et le rôle des réserves change. Il montre qu’en accumulant des réserves de change, le gouvernement est en mesure stabiliser l’économie nationale, en recapitalisant le secteur privé avec ses devises ou en faisant une relance fiscale.

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  • Gong Cheng, 2014. "Foreign Reserves, Crises and Growth," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1tv3m5dr9b9, Sciences Po.
    • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1tv3m5dr9b93nruqea1tiinncu
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    1. Olivier Jeanne & Charles Wyplosz, 2003. "The International Lender of Last Resort. How Large Is Large Enough?," NBER Chapters, in: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 89-124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
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