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Heterogeneous Beliefs and Instability

Author

Listed:
  • Laurence Lasselle
  • Serge Svizzero

    (Réunion)

  • Clem Tisdell

    (Queensland)

Abstract

While Rational Expectations have dominated the paradigm of expectations formation, they have been more recently challenged on the empirical ground such as, for instance, in the dynamics of the exchange rate. This challenge has led to the introduction of heterogeneous expectations in economic modeling. More specifically, the forecasts of the market participants have been drawn from competing views. Two behaviours are usually considered: agents are either fundamentalist or chartist. Moreover, the possibility of switching from one behaviour to the other one is also assumed. In a simple cobweb model, we study the dynamics associated with Different endogenous switching process based on the path of prices. We provide an example with an asymmetric endogenous switching process built on the dynamics of past prices. This example confirms the widespread belief that fundamentalist market behaviour as compared with that of chartist tends to promote market stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence Lasselle & Serge Svizzero & Clem Tisdell, 2001. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Instability," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics 200111, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews.
  • Handle: RePEc:san:wpecon:0111
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    File URL: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~wwwecon/papers/dp0111.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lasselle, Laurence & Svizzero, Serge & Tisdell, Clement Allan, 2001. "Diversity, Globalisation and Market Stability," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 54(3), pages 385-399.
    2. Vigfusson, Robert, 1997. "Switching between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 291-305, October.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-185, May.
    4. Hommes, C.H., 1999. "Cobweb Dynamics under Bounded Rationality," CeNDEF Working Papers 99-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
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    Cited by:

    1. João Luis Brasil Gondim & Marcos Costa Holanda, 2003. "Modelando o Câmbio Após a Estabilização," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] c32, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bounded rationality; chartists; chaos; fundamentalists; rational expectations.;

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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