Heterogeneous Beliefs and Instability
While Rational Expectations have dominated the paradigm of expectations formation, they have been more recently challenged on the empirical ground such as, for instance, in the dynamics of the exchange rate. This challenge has led to the introduction of heterogeneous expectations in economic modeling. More specifically, the forecasts of the market participants have been drawn from competing views. Two behaviours are usually considered: agents are either fundamentalist or chartist. Moreover, the possibility of switching from one behaviour to the other one is also assumed. In a simple cobweb model, we study the dynamics associated with Different endogenous switching process based on the path of prices. We provide an example with an asymmetric endogenous switching process built on the dynamics of past prices. This example confirms the widespread belief that fundamentalist market behaviour as compared with that of chartist tends to promote market stability.
|Date of creation:||15 Dec 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 01334 462420
Fax: 01334 462444
Web page: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/economics/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-85, May.
- Vigfusson, R., 1996.
"Switching Between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach,"
96-1, Bank of Canada.
- Vigfusson, Robert, 1997. "Switching between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 291-305, October.
- Robert Vigfusson, 1996. "Switching Between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," International Finance 9602003, EconWPA.
- Lasselle, Laurence & Svizzero, Serge & Tisdell, Clement A., 2001.
"Diversity, Globalisation and Market Stability,"
Economic Theory, Applications and Issues Working Papers
90501, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
- Hommes, C.H., 1999. "Cobweb Dynamics under Bounded Rationality," CeNDEF Working Papers 99-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:san:wpecon:0111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bram Boskamp)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.