IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan

  • Andreas Humpe
  • Peter D. Macmillan
Registered author(s):

    Within the framework of a standard discounted value model we examine whether a number of macroeconomic variables influence stock prices in the US and Japan. A cointegration analysis is applied in order to model the long term relationship between industrial production, the consumer price index, money supply, long term interest rates and stock prices in the US and Japan. For the US we find the data are consistent with a single cointegrating vector, where stock prices are positively related to industrial production and negatively related to both the consumer price index and a long term interest rate. We also find an insignificant (although positive) relationship between US stock prices and the money supply. However, for the Japanese data we find two cointegrating vectors. We find for one vector that stock prices are influenced positively by industrial production and negatively by the money supply. For the second cointegrating vector we find industrial production to be negatively influenced by the consumer price index and a long term interest rate. These contrasting results may be due to the slump in the Japanese economy during the 1990s and consequent liquidity trap.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~www_crieff/papers/dp0511old.pdf
    Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Bram Boskamp)


    File Function: First version, 2005
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~www_crieff/papers/dp0511.pdf
    Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Bram Boskamp)


    File Function: Revised version, 2007
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm in its series CRIEFF Discussion Papers with number 0511.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: Aug 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:san:crieff:0511
    Contact details of provider: Postal: School of Economics and Finance, University of St. Andrews, Fife KY16 9AL
    Phone: 01334 462420
    Fax: 01334 462438
    Web page: http://crieff.wordpress.com/
    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October.
    2. Black, Angela & Fraser, Patricia & MacDonald, Ronald, 1997. "Business Conditions and Speculative Assets," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(4), pages 379-93, September.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
    4. Urich, Thomas & Wachtel, Paul, 1981. "Market Response to the Weekly Money Supply Announcements in the 1970s," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1063-72, December.
    5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
    7. Adam S. Posen, 2003. "It Takes More than a Bubble to Become Japan," Working Paper Series WP03-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    8. Perron, P. & Ghysels, E., 1994. "The Effect of Linear Filters on Dynamic Time series with Structural Change," Cahiers de recherche 9425, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    9. Ghysels, Eric & Lieberman, Offer, 1996. "Dynamic Regression and Filtered Data Series: A Laplace Approximation to the Effects of Filtering in Small Samples," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 432-457, August.
    10. Nasseh, Alireza & Strauss, Jack, 2000. "Stock prices and domestic and international macroeconomic activity: a cointegration approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 229-245.
    11. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Scholarly Articles 3224293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    12. Campbell R. Harvey & Bruno Solnik & Guofu Zhou, 1994. "What Determines Expected International Asset Returns?," NBER Working Papers 4660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1998. "International evidence on the stock market and aggregate economic activity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 281-296, September.
    14. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    15. Ghysels, Eric & Perron, Pierre, 1993. "The effect of seasonal adjustment filters on tests for a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 57-98.
    16. Cochran, Steven J & DeFina, Robert H & Mills, Leonard O, 1993. "International Evidence on the Predictability of Stock Returns," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 159-80, May.
    17. Rogalski, Richard J & Vinso, Joseph D, 1977. "Stock Returns, Money Supply and the Direction of Causality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1017-30, September.
    18. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
    19. Soosung Hwang & Byung Khun Song, 2008. "'Irrational exuberance' in the long-run UK stock market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(24), pages 3199-3211.
    20. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
    21. Campbell, John Y & Hamao, Yasushi, 1992. " Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 43-69, March.
    22. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 145-166, Fall.
    23. Pesaran, M. H. & Timmermann, A., 1996. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9625, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    24. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
    25. Peter McAdam, 2007. "USA, Japan and the Euro Area: Comparing Business-Cycle Features," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 135-156.
    26. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    27. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    28. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    29. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    30. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    31. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
    32. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J., 1988. "A multi-index risk model of the Japanese stock market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 21-44, October.
    33. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "Stock returns and real activity in the G-7 countries: did the relationship change during the 1980s?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 237-252, May.
    34. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Hamao, Yasushi, 1988. "An empirical examination of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory : Using Japanese data," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 45-61, October.
    36. Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101.
    37. K. Chaudhuri & S. Smiles, 2004. "Stock market and aggregate economic activity: evidence from Australia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 121-129.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:san:crieff:0511. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bram Boskamp)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.