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Risk Preferences and Environmental Uncertainty: Implications for Crop Diversification Decisions in Ethiopia

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  • Mare Sarr and Mintewab Bezabih

Abstract

To the extent that diversifying income portfolio is used as a strategy for shielding against production risk, both individual risk preferences and weather uncertainty could affect crop diversification decisions. This paper is concerned with empirically assessing the effects of risk preferences and rainfall variability on farm level diversity. Unique panel data from Ethiopia consisting of experimentally generated risk preference measures combined with rainfall data are employed in the analysis. The major contribution of this study is its explicit treatment of individual risk preferences in the decision to diversify, simultaneously controlling for environmental risk in the form of rainfall variability. Covariate shocks from rainfall variability are found to positively contribute to an increased level of diversity with individual risk aversion having a positive but less significant role. We find that rainfall variability in spring has a greater effect than rainfall variability summer—the major rainy season. This finding is in line with similar agronomic-meteorological studies. These results imply that in situ biodiversity conservation could be effective in areas with high rainfall variability. However, reduction in risk aversion, which is associated with poverty reduction, is likely to reduce in situ conservation.

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Paper provided by Economic Research Southern Africa in its series Working Papers with number 322.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:322
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Keywords: Crop diversity; Experimental risk preferences; Rainfall; Uncertainty;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics
  • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
  • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
  • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions

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Cited by:

  1. Ayenew, Habtamu Yesigat & Sauer, Johannes & Abate-Kassa, Getachew, 2015. "Expossure To Risk And Risk Management In Smallholder Agriculture," 55th Annual Conference, Giessen, Germany, September 23-25, 2015 209211, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  2. Muraoka, Rie & Matsumoto, Tomoya & Jin, Songqing & Otsuka, Keijiro, 2015. "On the Possibility of a Maize Green Revolution in the Highlands of Kenya: An Assessment of Emerging Intensive Farming Systems," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212034, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Alem, Yonas & Colmer, Jonathan, 2014. "Optimal Expectations and the Welfare Cost of Climate Variability," Discussion Papers dp-14-03-efd, Resources For the Future.
  4. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Adinolfi, Felice & Capitanio, Fabian & Goodwin, Barry K., 2016. "Farmer Participation, Entry and Exit decisions in the Italian Crop Insurance Program," MPRA Paper 69508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Josephson, Anna Leigh & Michler, Jeffrey D., 2015. "To Specialize or Diversify: Agricultural Diversity and Poverty Persistence in Ethiopia," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212459, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  6. Larson,Donald F. & Savastano,Sara & Murray,Siobhan & Palacios-Lopez,Amparo, 2015. "Are women less productive farmers ? how markets and risk affect fertilizer use, productivity, and measured gender effects in Uganda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7241, The World Bank.
  7. Asfaw, Solomon & Savastano, Sara, 2015. "Topic: Building Resilience to Climate Change Through Social Protection and Climate-Smart Agriculture: Synergies and Trade-offs," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 210963, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  8. Mitter, Hermine & Heumesser, Christine & Schmid, Erwin, 2014. "Modelling robust crop production portfolios to assess agricultural vulnerability to climate change," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182702, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  9. Sauer, Johannes & Finger, Robert, 2014. "Climate Risk Management Strategies in Agriculture – The Case of Flood Risk," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 172679, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  10. Karl S. Zimmerer & Steven J. Vanek, 2016. "Toward the Integrated Framework Analysis of Linkages among Agrobiodiversity, Livelihood Diversification, Ecological Systems, and Sustainability amid Global Change," Land, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(2), pages 10, April.
  11. Salazar-Espinoza, César & Jones, Sam & Tarp, Finn, 2015. "Weather shocks and cropland decisions in rural Mozambique," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 9-21.
  12. Ayenew, Habtamu Yesigat & Sauer, Johannes & Abate-Kassa, Getachew, 2016. "Cost of Risk Exposure, Farm Disinvestment and Adaptation to Climate Uncertainties: The Case of Arable Farms in the EU," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235595, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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