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Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates in South Africa

Listed author(s):
  • Lumengo Bonga-Bonga

This paper examines how the short-term and long-term interest rates react to supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in South Africa. Use is made of the impulse response functions obtained from the structural vector autoregressive model with long-term restrictions. We find a positive correlation between the two interest rates after a monetary and demand shock and a negative correlation after a supply shock. The finding of this paper signifies that the operation of the monetary transmission mechanism should be effective in South Africa. Furthermore, the finding of this paper provide an approach to identify supply shocks in the South African business cycle.

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File URL: http://www.econrsa.org/node/149
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Paper provided by Economic Research Southern Africa in its series Working Papers with number 125.

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Date of creation: 2009
Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:125
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  1. Melvin muzi Khomo & Meshach jesse Aziakpono, 2007. "Forecasting Recession In South Africa: A Comparison Of The Yield Curve And Other Economic Indicators," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 194-212, 06.
  2. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
  3. Tore Ellingsen & Ulf Soderstrom, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Market Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1594-1607, December.
  4. Daniel C. Hardy, 1998. "Anticipation and Surprises in Central Bank Interest Rate Policy: The Case of the Bundesbank," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 647-671, December.
  5. V. Vance Roley & Gordon H. Sellon, 1995. "Monetary policy actions and long-term interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 73-89.
  6. Hugo Nel*, 1996. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Economic Activity in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 64(3), pages 151-157, 09.
  7. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2007. "Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa since 1994," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 16(5), pages 705-744, November.
  8. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
  9. John B. Taylor, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 11-26, Fall.
  10. Stan Du plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2007. "The Cyclicality Of Monetary And Fiscal Policy In South Africa Since 1994," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(3), pages 391-411, 09.
  11. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
  12. Peersman, Gert, 2002. "Monetary policy and long term interest rates in Germany," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 271-277, October.
  13. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1989. "The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, November.
  14. C Angelis & Mj Aziakpono & A Pierre Faure, 2005. "The Transmission Of Monetary Policy Under The Repo System In South Africa: An Empirical Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(4), pages 657-673, December.
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