Exports and Capacity Constraints – A Smooth Transition Regression Model for Six Euro Area Countries
Traditional specifications of export equations incorporate foreign demand as a demand pull factor and the real exchange rate as a relative price variable. However, such standard export equations have failed to explain the export performance of euro area countries during the crisis period. In particular, the significant gains in export market shares in a number of vulnerable euro area crisis countries did not coincide with an appropriate improvement in price competitiveness. This paper argues that, under certain conditions, firms consider export activity as a substitute of serving domestic demand. The strength of the link between domestic demand and exports is dependent on capacity constraints. Our econometric model for six euro area countries suggests domestic demand pressure and capacity constraint restrictions as additional variables of a properly specified export equation. As an innovation to the literature, we assess the empirical significance through the logistic and the exponential variant of the non-linear smooth transition regression model. In the first case, we differentiate between positive and negative changes in capacity utilization and in the second case between small and large changes of the same transition variable. We find that domestic demand developments are relevant for the short-run dynamics of exports when capacity utilization is low. For some countries, we also find evidence that the substitution effect of domestic demand on exports turns out to be stronger the larger is the deviation of capacity utilization from its average value over the cycle.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.rwi-essen.de/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Baldwin, Richard & Krugman, Paul, 1989.
"Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-54, November.
- Richard Baldwin & Paul R. Krugman, 1986. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchage Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 2017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sanghamitra Das & Mark J. Roberts & James R. Tybout, 2007.
"Market Entry Costs, Producer Heterogeneity, and Export Dynamics,"
Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 837-873, 05.
- Sanghamitra Das & Mark J. Roberts & James R. Tybout, 2001. "Market entry costs, producer heterogeneity and export dynamics," Indian Statistical Institute, Planning Unit, New Delhi Discussion Papers 03-10, Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India.
- Sanghamitra Das & Mark J. Roberts & James R. Tybout, 2001. "Market Entry Costs, Producer Heterogeneity, and Export Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2001.
"Why Some Firms Export,"
NBER Working Papers
8349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003.
"Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- Tom Doan, . "MULTIPLEBREAKS: RATS procedure to perform multiple structural change analysis," Statistical Software Components RTS00138, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "BAIPERRON: RATS procedure to perform Bai-Perron Test for Multiple Structural Changes," Statistical Software Components RTS00013, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate examples of Bai-Perron procedure," Statistical Software Components RTZ00008, Boston College Department of Economics.
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2012.
"Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in German Exports - Sectoral Evidence for Some OECD Destinations,"
ROME Working Papers
201202, ROME Network.
- Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2013. "Exchange Rate Bands Of Inaction And Play-Hysteresis In German Exports—Sectoral Evidence For Some Oecd Destinations," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 152-179, 02.
- Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2012. "Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in German Exports: Sectoral Evidence for Some OECD Destinations," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1203, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Guenther, 2012. "Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in German Exports – Sectoral Evidence for Some OECD Destinations," Ruhr Economic Papers 0327, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
- JaeBin Ahn & Alexander McQuoid, 2013. "Capacity Constrained Exporters: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications," Working Papers 1301, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
- Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias, 2004.
"Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?,"
IZA Discussion Papers
1126, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke, 2005. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 185-203, 05.
- Faini, Ricardo, 1988.
"Export supply, capacity, and relative prices,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
123, The World Bank.
- Campa, José Manuel, 2000.
"Exchange Rates and Trade: How Important is Hysteresis in Trade?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2606, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Campa, Jose Manuel, 2004. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 527-548, June.
- Campa, Jose M., 2000. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," IESE Research Papers D/427, IESE Business School.
- Zilberfarb, Ben-Zion, 1980. "Domestic Demand Pressure, Relative Prices and the Exports Supply Equation-More Empirical Evidence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 443-50, November.
- Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, April.
- Blum, Bernardo S. & Claro, Sebastian & Horstmann, Ignatius J., 2013. "Occasional and perennial exporters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 65-74.
- Berman, N. & Berthou, A. & Héricourt, J., 2012.
"Export dynamics and sales at home,"
408, Banque de France.
- Berman, Nicolas & Berthou, Antoine & Héricourt, Jérôme, 2014. "Export dynamics and sales at home," Working Paper Series 1720, European Central Bank.
- Berman, Nicolas & Berthou, Antoine & Héricourt, Jérôme, 2011. "Export dynamics and sales at home," CEPR Discussion Papers 8684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nicolas Berman & Antoine Berthou & Jérôme Héricourt, 2011. "Export Dynamics and Sales at Home," Working Papers 2011-33, CEPII research center.
- Nicolas Berman, Antoine Berthou,Jérôme Héricourt, 2011. "Export dynamics and sales at home," IHEID Working Papers 14-2011, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
- Andrew Bernard & Joachim Wagner, 2001.
"Export entry and exit by German firms,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 105-123, March.
- Juan A. Máñez & María E. Rochina-Barrachina & Juan A. Sanchis, 2008.
"Sunk Costs Hysteresis in Spanish Manufacturing Exports,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 272-294, July.
- Juan A. Máñez & Juan A. Sanchis Llopis & María E. Rochina, 2004. "Sunk Costs Hysteresis In Spanish Manufacturing Exports," Working Papers. Serie EC 2004-17, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Artus, Jacques R., 1973. "The short-run effects of domestic demand pressure on export delivery delays for machinery," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 21-36, February.
- Impullitti, Giammario & Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Opromolla, Luca David, 2013. "A theory of entry into and exit from export markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 75-90.
- Vannoorenberghe, G., 2012. "Firm-level volatility and exports," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 57-67.
- Alfonso A. Irarrazabal & Luca David Opromolla, 2008. "A Theory of Entry and Exit into Exports Markets," Working Papers w200820, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Nicolas Berman & Antoine Berthou & Jérôme Héricourt, 2012. "Export dynamics and sales at home," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00988194, HAL.
- Sharma, Kishor, 2003. "Factors determining India's export performance," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 435-446, June.
- Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-64, September.
- Antoin E. Murphy, 2000. "The 'Celtic Tiger' - An Analysis of Ireland's Economic Growth Performance," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 16, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0449. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Weiler)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.