Does Monetary Policy Affect Stock Market Uncertainty? – Empirical Evidence from the United States
This paper investigates the response of US stock market uncertainty to monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank. It can be shown that monetary policy significantly Granger-causes stock market confidence. By using monthly closing prices of the VIX as a stock market uncertainty proxy and a copula-based Markov approach the stable nonlinear relation between confidence and uncertainty is demonstrated. The monetary policy effect on stock market uncertainty is therefore separable into a linear and nonlinear part.
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