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Within and Between Panel Cointegration in the German Regional Output-Trade-FDI Nexus

  • Timo Mitze

    ()

For spatial data with a sufficiently long time dimension, the concept of global cointegration has been recently included in the econometrics research agenda. Global cointegration arises when non-stationary time series are cointegrated both within and between spatial units. In this paper, we analyze the role of globally cointegrated variable relationships using German regional data (NUTS 1 level) for GDP, trade, and FDI activity during the period 1976–2005. Applying various homogeneous and heterogeneous panel data estimators to a Spatial Panel Error Correction Model (SpECM) for regional output growth allows us to analyze the short- and long-run impacts of internationalization activities. For the long-run cointegration equation, the empirical results support the hypothesis of export- and FDI-led growth. We also show that for export and outward FDI activity positive cross-regional eff ects are at work. Likewise, in the short-run SpECM specification, direct and indirect spatial externalities are found to be present. As a sensitivity analysis, we use a spatial weighting matrix based on interregional goods transport fl ows rather than geographical distances. This scheme thus allows us to address more soundly the role of positive and negative effects of trade/FDI on output activity for a system of interconnected regions.

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Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0222.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0222
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  1. Michael Beenstock & Daniel Felsenstein, 2010. "Spatial error correction and cointegration in nonstationary panel data: regional house prices in Israel," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 189-206, June.
  2. Kukenova, Madina & Monteiro, Jose-Antonio, 2008. "Spatial Dynamic Panel Model and System GMM: A Monte Carlo Investigation," MPRA Paper 11569, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2008.
  3. Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Reinhold Kosfeld & Matthias Türck, 2007. "Regionale Entwicklung mit und ohne räumliche Spillover-Effekte," Review of Regional Research- Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 27(1), pages 23-42, February.
  4. Salima Bouayad-Agha & Lionel Védrine, 2010. "Estimation Strategies for a Spatial Dynamic Panel using GMM. A New Approach to the Convergence Issue of European Regions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 205-227.
  5. Shiva S. Makki & Agapi Somwaru, 2004. "Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade on Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(3), pages 795-801.
  6. Blomström, Magnus & Globerman, Steve & Kokko, Ari, 2000. "The Determinants of Host Country Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 2350, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Lee, Lung-fei & Yu, Jihai, 2010. "Estimation of spatial autoregressive panel data models with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 165-185, February.
  8. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
  9. Manfred Fischer & Monika Bartkowska & Aleksandra Riedl & Sascha Sardadvar & Andrea Kunnert, 2009. "The impact of human capital on regional labor productivity in Europe," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 97-108, October.
  10. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2010. "The Performance of Panel Cointegration Methods: Results from a Large Scale Simulation Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 182-223, April.
  11. Sélin Ozyurt, 2008. "Regional Assessment of Openness and Productivity Spillovers in China from 1979 to 2006: A Space-Time Model," Working Papers 08-15, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Sep 2008.
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