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Within and Between Panel Cointegration in the German Regional Output-Trade-FDI Nexus

  • Timo Mitze


For spatial data with a sufficiently long time dimension, the concept of global cointegration has been recently included in the econometrics research agenda. Global cointegration arises when non-stationary time series are cointegrated both within and between spatial units. In this paper, we analyze the role of globally cointegrated variable relationships using German regional data (NUTS 1 level) for GDP, trade, and FDI activity during the period 1976–2005. Applying various homogeneous and heterogeneous panel data estimators to a Spatial Panel Error Correction Model (SpECM) for regional output growth allows us to analyze the short- and long-run impacts of internationalization activities. For the long-run cointegration equation, the empirical results support the hypothesis of export- and FDI-led growth. We also show that for export and outward FDI activity positive cross-regional eff ects are at work. Likewise, in the short-run SpECM specification, direct and indirect spatial externalities are found to be present. As a sensitivity analysis, we use a spatial weighting matrix based on interregional goods transport fl ows rather than geographical distances. This scheme thus allows us to address more soundly the role of positive and negative effects of trade/FDI on output activity for a system of interconnected regions.

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Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0222.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0222
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  1. Martin, Philippe & Ottaviano, Gianmarco, 1996. "Growth and Agglomeration," CEPR Discussion Papers 1529, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Martin, Philippe & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I P, 2001. "Growth and Agglomeration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 947-68, November.
  2. Manfred Fischer & Monika Bartkowska & Aleksandra Riedl & Sascha Sardadvar & Andrea Kunnert, 2009. "The impact of human capital on regional labor productivity in Europe," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 97-108, October.
  3. Salima Bouayad-Agha & Lionel V�drine, 2010. "Estimation Strategies for a Spatial Dynamic Panel using GMM. A New Approach to the Convergence Issue of European Regions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 205-227.
  4. Rivera-Batiz, Luis A. & Xie, Danyang, 1993. "Integration among unequals," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 337-354, July.
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