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A Count Data Analysis of Ridership in Germany’s Public Transport

  • Manuel Frondel

    ()

  • Colin Vance

Focusing on adult members of German households, this paper investigates the determinants of public transit ridership with the aim of quantifying the effects of fuel prices, fares, person-level attributes, and characteristics of the transit system on transport counts over a five-day week. The reliance on individual data raises several conceptual and empirical issues, the most fundamental of which is the large proportion of zero values in transit counts. To accommodate this feature of the data, we employ modeling procedures referred to as zero-inflated models (ZIMs), which order observations into two latent regimes defined by whether the individual never uses public transport. Our estimates reveal fuel prices to have a positive and substantial influence on transit ridership, though there is no evidence for a statistically significant impact of the fare.

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Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0209.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0209
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  1. Frondel, Manuel & Peters, Jörg & Vance, Colin, 2007. "Identifying the Rebound - Evidence from a German Household Panel," Ruhr Economic Papers 32, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  2. Frondel, Manuel & Vance, Colin, 2010. "Driving for fun? Comparing the effect of fuel prices on weekday and weekend fuel consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 102-109, January.
  3. Daniel J. Graham & Stephen Glaister, 2002. "The Demand for Automobile Fuel: A Survey of Elasticities," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25, January.
  4. Kayser, Hilke A., 2000. "Gasoline demand and car choice: estimating gasoline demand using household information," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 331-348, June.
  5. Hensher, David A., 2008. "Assessing systematic sources of variation in public transport elasticities: Some comparative warnings," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 1031-1042, August.
  6. Manuel Frondel & Colin Vance, 2009. "Do High Oil Prices Matter? Evidence on the Mobility Behavior of German Households," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 81-94, May.
  7. Colin Vance & Ralf Hedel, 2007. "The impact of urban form on automobile travel: disentangling causation from correlation," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 575-588, September.
  8. Holmgren, Johan, 2007. "Meta-analysis of public transport demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 1021-1035, December.
  9. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
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