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Aid, Spending Strategies and Productivity Effects – A Multi-sectoral CGE Analysis for Zambia

  • Volker Clausen
  • Hannah Schürenberg-Frosch


Numerous econometric studies fail to detect a signicant and robust relationship between international aid and economic growth in the recipient countries. Dutch Disease effects might be responsible for this result.This paper examines the relation between aid and its effectiveness in a multi-sector multihousehold Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)-framework. Given that international transfers to African countries increasingly take the form of general financial support to the government, different spending strategies and their macroeconomic, sectoral and distributional effects are evaluated in a two-stage simulation making a distinction between immediate direct effects and possible long-run effects from increased productivity. While the model simulates the effects of additional aid in Zambia it can be used as a blueprint for other African countries.

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Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0127.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0127
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  1. Christopher S. Adam & David L. Bevan, 2006. "Aid and the Supply Side: Public Investment, Export Performance, and Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(2), pages 261-290.
  2. Duffy, John & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2000. " A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation of the Aggregate Production Function Specification," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 87-120, March.
  3. Christopher Adam & David Bevan, 2004. "Aid, Public Expenditure and Dutch Disease," Development and Comp Systems 0409027, EconWPA.
  4. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," NBER Working Papers 11513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & El Aynaoui, Karim, 2005. "Roads out of poverty? assessing the links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3490, The World Bank.
  6. Peter S. Heller, 2005. "Pity the Finance Minister: Issues in Managing a Substantial Scaling-Up of Aid Flows," IMF Working Papers 05/180, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Christopher S Adam & Stephen A O'Connell, 2004. "Aid versus Trade Revisited: Donor and Recipient Policies in the Presence of Learning-by-Doing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(492), pages 150-173, 01.
  8. Torvik, Ragnar, 2001. "Learning by doing and the Dutch disease," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 285-306, February.
  9. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A, 1999. "External Aid: Help or Hindrance to Export Orientation in Africa?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(4), pages 578-616, December.
  10. Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 2008. "Poverty effects of Russia's WTO accession: Modeling "real" households with endogenous productivity effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 131-150, May.
  11. William Easterly, 2003. "Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 23-48, Summer.
  12. Charles R. Hulten, 1996. "Infrastructure Capital and Economic Growth: How Well You Use It May Be More Important Than How Much You Have," NBER Working Papers 5847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2005. "Aid Effectiveness on Growth. A Meta Study," Economics Working Papers 2005-13, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
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