Who gets the Credit? Determinants of the Probability of Default in the German Hospital Sector
Huge underinvestment increases the need for private borrowing in the German hospital sector, the access to which is partly determined by the probability of default (PD) of individual hospitals. Using ordinary least squares and quantile regression techniques this paper provides first empirical evidence of its kind to evaluate the PD in the hospital sector and its constituent determinants. Based on annual account and medical data from 17% of all German hospitals we find that the current average probability of default amounts to approximately 1.7%, which is slightly higher than the average probability for all German firms. Among other determinants, we find that public ownership significantly increases the risk of default, while private for-profit and private not-for-profit hospitals do not differ. Moreover, demographic change in the form of population growth is confirmed to be relevant for the PD.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.rwi-essen.de/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Propper, Carol & Burgess, Simon & Green, Katherine, 2004. "Does competition between hospitals improve the quality of care?: Hospital death rates and the NHS internal market," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1247-1272, July.
- Martin Gaynor & William Vogt, 2002.
"Competition Among Hospitals,"
GSIA Working Papers
2003-E20, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Martin Gaynor & William B Vogt, 2003. "Competition among Hospitals," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 03/087, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
- Martin Gaynor & William B. Vogt, 2003. "Competition Among Hospitals," NBER Working Papers 9471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert Connor & Roger Feldman & Bryan Dowd, 1998. "The Effects of Market Concentration and Horizontal Mergers on Hospital Costs and Prices," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 159-180.
- Vita, Michael G., 1990. "Exploring hospital production relationships with flexible functional forms," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, June.
- Dranove, David & Ludwick, Richard, 1999. "Competition and pricing by nonprofit hospitals: a reassessment of Lynk's analysis," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 87-98, January.
- Danzon, Patricia Munch, 1982. "Hospital `profits' : The effects of reimbursement policies," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-52, May.
- Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
- Town, Robert & Vistnes, Gregory, 2001. "Hospital competition in HMO networks," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 733-753, September.
- Nazmi Sari, 2002. "Do competition and managed care improve quality?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(7), pages 571-584.
- David Easley & Maureen O'Hara, 1983. "The Economic Role of the Nonprofit Firm," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 14(2), pages 531-538, Autumn.
- Virginia Wilcox-Gok, 2002. "The effects of for-profit status and system membership on the financial performance of hospitals," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 479-489.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rwi:dpaper:0054. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Weiler)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.