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A Bayesian and Classical Econometric Evaluation of the Effect of Cell Phones on Motor Vehicle Fatality Rates

  • Richard Fowles

    ()

  • Peter Loeb

    ()

  • William A. Clarke

    ()

This paper examines the potential effect of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates normalized for other driving related and socioeconomic factors. The model used is nonlinear so as to address both life-taking and life-saving attributes of cell phones. The models are evaluated using classical methods along with Bayesian Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA). The use of both classical and Bayesian methods diminishes the model and parameter uncertainties which afflict more conventional modeling methods which rely on only one of the two methods. The results indicate the presence of both life-taking and life-saving attributes of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates depending on the volume of cell phone subscribers in existence.

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File URL: http://www.ncas.rutgers.edu/workingpaper20091
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Rutgers University, Newark in its series Working Papers Rutgers University, Newark with number 2009-001.

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Length: 23
Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:run:wpaper:2009-001
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Web page: http://www.ncas.rutgers.edu/economics

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  1. Loeb, Peter D., 2001. "The effectiveness of seat belt legislation in reducing driver-involved injury rates in Maryland," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 297-310, August.
  2. Keeler, Theodore E, 1994. "Highway Safety, Economic Behavior, and Driving Environment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 684-93, June.
  3. Chaloupka, Frank J & Saffer, Henry & Grossman, Michael, 1993. "Alcohol-Control Policies and Motor-Vehicle Fatalities," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(1), pages 161-86, January.
  4. Granger, Clive W. J. & Uhlig, Harald F., 1990. "Reasonable extreme-bounds analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 159-170.
  5. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
  6. Leamer, Edward E, 1982. "Sets of Posterior Means with Bounded Variance Priors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 725-36, May.
  7. Levy, David T & Asch, Peter, 1989. "Speeding, Coordination, and the 55-MPH Limit: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 913-15, September.
  8. Snyder, Donald, 1989. "Speeding, Coordination, and the 55-MPH Limit: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 922-25, September.
  9. Fowles, Richard & Loeb, Peter D, 1989. "Speeding, Coordination, and the 55-MPH Limit: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 916-21, September.
  10. Loeb, Peter D, 1995. "The Effectiveness of Seat-Belt Legislation in Reducing Injury Rates in Texas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 81-84, May.
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