Market Efficiency and Learning in an Endogenously Unstable Environment
A least-squares model governs the learning process as traders attempt to extract private information from the market price of an asset. Replicator dynamics govern the evolution of the popularity of this strategy against the alternative, directly acquiring the private information through research. The lack of a fixed point to the dual dynamics embodies the Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) impossibility of informationally efficient markets. The asymptotic behavior of the system has the model switching between price stability and instability, endogenously generating noise in the price. The asymptotic behavior is the same when all traders access and employ both fundamental and market information.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (973) 353-5259
Web page: http://www.ncas.rutgers.edu/economics
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- T. Borgers & R. Sarin, 2010.
"Learning Through Reinforcement and Replicator Dynamics,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
380, David K. Levine.
- Borgers, Tilman & Sarin, Rajiv, 1997. "Learning Through Reinforcement and Replicator Dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 1-14, November.
- Tilman B�rgers & Rajiv Sarin, . "Learning Through Reinforcement and Replicator Dynamics," ELSE working papers 051, ESRC Centre on Economics Learning and Social Evolution.
- Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer, 2000.
NBER Working Papers
8039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ed Hopkins, 2004.
"Two Competing Models of How People Learn in Games,"
ESE Discussion Papers
51, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980.
"On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
- Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
- Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2008. "Replicator dynamics in a Cobweb model with rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 224-244, February.
- Droste, Edward & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan, 2002.
"Endogenous fluctuations under evolutionary pressure in Cournot competition,"
Games and Economic Behavior,
Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 232-269, August.
- Droste, E. & Hommes, C.H. & Tuinstra, J., 1999. "Endogenous Fluctuations under Evolutionary Pressure in Cournot Competition," CeNDEF Working Papers 99-04, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Hussman, John P., 1992. "Market efficiency and inefficiency in rational expectations equilibria : Dynamic effects of heterogeneous information and noise," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 655-680.
- Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
- Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999.
"A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
- Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1997. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading and Overreaction in Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 6324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- de Fontnouvelle, Patrick, 2000. "Information Dynamics In Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(02), pages 139-169, June.
- Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-22, December.
- Routledge, Bryan R, 1999. "Adaptive Learning in Financial Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1165-1202.
- Sethi, Rajiv & Franke, Reiner, 1995. "Behavioural Heterogeneity under Evolutionary Pressure: Macroeconomic Implications of Costly Optimisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 583-600, May.
- Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998.
"Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Brock, William A & LeBaron, Blake D, 1996.
"A Dynamic Structural Model for Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 94-110, February.
- William A. Brock & Blake D. LeBaron, 1995. "A Dynamic Structural Model for Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 4988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Timmermann, Allan, 1996. "Excess Volatility and Predictability of Stock Prices in Autoregressive Dividend Models with Learning," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 523-57, October.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Friedman, Daniel, 1998. "A comparison of learning and replicator dynamics using experimental data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 263-280, April.
- Bray, Margaret, 1982. "Learning, estimation, and the stability of rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 318-339, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:run:wpaper:2004-002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vlad Manole)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.