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Market Efficiency and Learning in an Endogenously Unstable Environment

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  • David Goldbaum

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Abstract

A least-squares model governs the learning process as traders attempt to extract private information from the market price of an asset. Replicator dynamics govern the evolution of the popularity of this strategy against the alternative, directly acquiring the private information through research. The lack of a fixed point to the dual dynamics embodies the Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) impossibility of informationally efficient markets. The asymptotic behavior of the system has the model switching between price stability and instability, endogenously generating noise in the price. The asymptotic behavior is the same when all traders access and employ both fundamental and market information.

Suggested Citation

  • David Goldbaum, 2004. "Market Efficiency and Learning in an Endogenously Unstable Environment," Working Papers Rutgers University, Newark 2004-002, Department of Economics, Rutgers University, Newark.
  • Handle: RePEc:run:wpaper:2004-002
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    File URL: http://www.rutgers-newark.rutgers.edu/econnwk/workingpapers/2004-002.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brock, William A & LeBaron, Blake D, 1996. "A Dynamic Structural Model for Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 94-110, February.
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    18. repec:hrv:faseco:30747193 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Hussman, John P., 1992. "Market efficiency and inefficiency in rational expectations equilibria : Dynamic effects of heterogeneous information and noise," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 655-680.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2009. "More hedging instruments may destabilize markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1912-1928, November.
    2. Hommes, C.H., 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance, In: Handbook of Computational Economics II: Agent-Based Computational Economics, edited by Leigh Tesfatsion and Ken Judd , Elsevier, Amsterdam 2006," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    3. Goldbaum, David & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2010. "Learning and adaptation's impact on market efficiency," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 635-653, December.
    4. Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2008. "Complex evolutionary systems in behavioral finance," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    5. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    6. David Goldbaum, 2003. "Profitable technical trading rules as a source of price instability," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 220-229.
    7. Diks, Cees & Dindo, Pietro, 2008. "Informational differences and learning in an asset market with boundedly rational agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1432-1465, May.
    8. David Goldbaum, 2013. "Learning and Adaptation as a Source of Market Failure," Working Paper Series 14, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    9. David Goldbaum, 2004. "On the Possibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Working Papers Rutgers University, Newark 2004-009, Department of Economics, Rutgers University, Newark.
    10. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics,in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186 Elsevier.
    11. Goldbaum, David, 2006. "Self-organization and the persistence of noise in financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1837-1855.
    12. Goldbaum, David, 2017. "Divergent Behavior in Markets with Idiosyncratic Private Information," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 4(2), pages 181-213, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Efficient Markets; Least-Square Learning;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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