IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rpi/rpiwpe/1005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Government Deficits Crowd Out Consumer And Investment Spending?

Author

Listed:
  • John J. Heim

    () (Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180-3590, USA)

Abstract

This paper econometrically tests whether deficits financed by government borrowing “crowd out” business and consumer spending reductions by reducing credit availability. To test the hypothesis, the government deficit variables are added to consumption and investment models to see if they increase explained variance, negatively impact consumption and investment spending, and are statistically significant. U.S. data for 1960 - 2000 is tested. A demand-driven econometric model, patterned after the work of Klein and Fair and containing eight behavioral equations is used to estimate crowd out effects. Demand models seemed appropriate because they, “provide the foundation of much of our current understanding of economic fluctuations “(Mankiw (2007), because demand fluctuations appear to have caused the recent economic crisis (Romer 2010), and because the fiscal policy prescriptions of demand models clearly lose some or all of their effectiveness if crowd out simultaneously reduces consumption and investment spending by reducing private credit. The findings indicate government deficits financed by borrowing systematically crowd out private consumption and investment spending. The findings also indicate that increases the savings components of M2 can offset part of this crowd out effect. Finally, consumption and investment functions with crowd out explanatory variables predict generally Keynesian “IS” curve coefficients model more accurately than models without them. The sign of the tax variable in actual econometric tests of IS curve was positive, contrary to predictions from no-crowd out Keynesian models The sign of the tax variable in the IS curve could only be accurately predicted from econometric estimates of consumption and investment equations containing crowd out. Findings for the government spending variable also showed crowd out markedly reduced its stimulus effect, in some model completely offsetting it.

Suggested Citation

  • John J. Heim, 2010. "Do Government Deficits Crowd Out Consumer And Investment Spending?," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 1005, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:rpi:rpiwpe:1005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics.rpi.edu/workingpapers/rpi1005.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John J. Heim, 2008. "The Consumption Function," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0805, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
    2. John J. Heim, 2009. "Demand For Durable Goods, Nondurable Goods And Services," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0906, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 874-890.
    2. John J. Heim, 2011. "Do Tax Cut And Spending Deficits Have Different Crowd Out Effects?," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 1104, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
    3. John J. Heim, 2011. "Is Crowd Out A Problem In Recessions?," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 1103, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
    4. Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "How do central banks react to wealth composition and asset prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 641-653.
    5. Agnello, L. & Furceri, D. & R.M, Sousa., 2011. "Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes," Working papers 354, Banque de France.
    6. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    7. John J. Heim, 2011. "Do Deficits Crowd Out Private Borrowing? Evidence From Flow Of Funds Accounts," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 1102, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
    8. Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Discretionary Government Consumption, Private Domestic Demand, and Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 79-100, February.
    9. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Fiscal Consolidation and Income Inequality," NIPE Working Papers 34/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    10. John J. HEIM, 2012. "The Different Crowd Out Effects Of Tax Cut And Spending Deficits," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(2).
    11. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "How Does Fiscal Consolidation Impact on Income Inequality?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(4), pages 702-726, December.
    12. John J. Heim, 2013. "Does “Crowd Out” Offset The Stimulus Effect Of Government Deficits? A Large Scale Econometric Study," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 1301, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rpi:rpiwpe:1005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shawn Kantor). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/derpius.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.