IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Effect of NAFTA on Energy and Environmental Efficiency in Mexico

  • David I. Stern

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180-3590, USA)

Prior to Mexico's entry to NAFTA predictions of the consequent impact on the environment in that country ranged from the dire to the very optimistic. This paper investigates NAFTA's outcomes in terms of energy use and the emission of atmospheric pollutants. Specifically, has entry into NAFTA led to a convergence or divergence in indicators of emissions, environmental efficiency, and emissions specific technology in Mexico, the United States, and Canada? Four emissions variables are considered: energy, carbon, sulfur, and NOx. Three different indicators of emissions and environmental efficiency are computed and tested for both convergence and the presence of a structural break associated with the introduction of NAFTA: energy or emissions per capita; energy or emissions intensity of GDP; and the state of technology in sulfur abatement and energy efficiency derived from a production frontier model estimated using the Kalman filter. Three convergence tests test for beta-convergence, sigma-convergence, and cointegration of the trends and the effect of NAFTA on these measures. I also test whether NAFTA induced a structural break in the trend of the various indicators. The results show that the extreme predictions of the outcomes of NAFTA have not materialized. Rather, trends that were already present before the introduction of NAFTA continue and in some cases improve post-NAFTA, but not yet in a dramatic way. There is strong evidence of convergence for all four intensity indicators across the three countries towards a lower intensity level. Though intensity is rising initially in some cases in Mexico, it eventually begins to fall post-NAFTA. Per capita measures for the two criteria pollutants also show convergence, but this is not the case for energy and carbon and the latter variables also drift moderately upwards. The state of technology in energy efficiency and sulfur abatement is improving in all countries, though there is little if any sign of convergence and NAFTA has no effect on the rate of technology diffusion. However, total energy use and carbon emissions increase both pre- and post- NAFTA and total NOx emissions increase in Mexico. Only total sulfur emissions are stable and falling in all three NAFTA partners.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.economics.rpi.edu/workingpapers/rpi0511.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics in its series Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics with number 0511.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rpi:rpiwpe:0511
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.economics.rpi.edu/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard O., 1993. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? : A time series analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 335-346, November.
  2. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:5:p:917-36 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
  4. Warwick J. McKibbin & Alison Stegman, 2005. "Convergence And Per Capita Carbon Emissions," CAMA Working Papers 2005-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  5. David I. Stern, 2004. "Diffusion of Emissions Abating Technology," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0420, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
  6. Grossman, G.M & Krueger, A.B., 1991. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," Papers 158, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  7. Susmita Dasgupta & Benoit Laplante & Hua Wang & David Wheeler, 2002. "Confronting the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 147-168, Winter.
  8. Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 2004. "Trade, Growth, and the Environment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 7-71, March.
  9. David I. Stern & Tony Auld & Michael S. Common & Kali K. Sanyal, 1998. "Is there an environmental Kuznets curve for sulfur?," Working Papers in Ecological Economics 9804, Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Ecological Economics Program.
  10. David I. Stern, 2003. "The Rise and Fall of the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0302, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
  11. Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Park, Joon Y. & Sung, Jaewhan, 1994. "Testing for Unit Roots in Models with Structural Change," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(05), pages 917-936, December.
  13. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  14. World Bank, 2005. "World Development Indicators 2005," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 12425, April.
  15. Stern, David I. & Common, Michael S. & Barbier, Edward B., 1996. "Economic growth and environmental degradation: The environmental Kuznets curve and sustainable development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1151-1160, July.
  16. Fernandez C. & Koop G. & Steel M.F.J., 2002. "Multiple-Output Production With Undesirable Outputs: An Application to Nitrogen Surplus in Agriculture," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 432-442, June.
  17. Aguayo, Francisco & Gallagher, Kevin P., 2005. "Economic reform, energy, and development: the case of Mexican manufacturing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 829-837, May.
  18. Viviana Fern�ndez & Ali M. Kutan, 2005. "Do Regional Integration Agreements Increase Business-Cycle Convergence? Evidence from Apec and Nafta," Documentos de Trabajo 202, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  19. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Barriers to Riches," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661306, June.
  20. Mark Strazicich & John List, 2003. "Are CO 2 Emission Levels Converging Among Industrial Countries?," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 24(3), pages 263-271, March.
  21. Taylor M. Scott, 2005. "Unbundling the Pollution Haven Hypothesis," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-28, June.
  22. Stijn Reinhard & C.A. Knox Lovell & Geert Thijssen, 1999. "Econometric Estimation of Technical and Environmental Efficiency: An Application to Dutch Dairy Farms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 44-60.
  23. repec:wbk:wbpubs:12426 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Lindmark, Magnus, 2004. "Patterns of historical CO2 intensity transitions among high and low-income countries," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 426-447, October.
  25. William A. Brock & M. Scott Taylor, 2004. "Economic Growth and the Environment: A Review of Theory and Empirics," NBER Working Papers 10854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Chimeli, Ariaster B. & Braden, John B., 2005. "Total factor productivity and the environmental Kuznets curve," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 366-380, March.
  27. Junsoo Lee & John List, 2004. "Examining Trends of Criteria Air Pollutants: Are the Effects of Governmental Intervention Transitory?," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 29(1), pages 21-37, September.
  28. Robert K. Kaufmann & Peter Pauly & Julie Sweitzer, 1993. "The Effects of NAFTA on the Environment," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 217-240.
  29. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Environment," NBER Working Papers 4634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Francisco Alvarez & Gustavo A. Marrero & Luis A. Puch, . "Air pollution and the macroeconomy across European countries," Working Papers 2005-10, FEDEA.
  31. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 1997. "Monopoly rights: a barrier to riches," Staff Report 236, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  32. A. Reinert, Kenneth & W. Roland-Holst, David, 2001. "NAFTA and Industrial Pollution: Some General Equilibrium Results," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 16, pages 165-179.
  33. Stern, David I., 2002. "Explaining changes in global sulfur emissions: an econometric decomposition approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 201-220, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rpi:rpiwpe:0511. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shawn Kantor)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.