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A Three-Layer Atmosphere-Ocean Time Series Model of Global Climate Change

  • David I. Stern

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180-3590, USA)

Time series models of global climate change have tended to estimate a low climate sensitivity and a fast adjustment rate to equilibrium. These results appear to be biased by omission of a key variable - heat stored in the ocean. I develop a time series model of the ocean atmosphere climate system where atmospheric temperature moves towards a long-run equilibrium with both radiative forcing and ocean heat content, which is distributed between upper ocean and deep ocean components. The time series model utilizes the notion of multicointegration to impose energy balance relations on an autoregressive model. As there are only around fifty years of observations on ocean heat content I use the Kalman filter to estimate heat content as a latent state variable constrained by the available observations. The estimate of the equilibrium climate sensitivity is 8.4K with a confidence interval of 5.0 to 11.7K. Temperature takes centuries to adjust to an increase in radiative forcing. The transient climate sensitivity at the point of carbon dioxide doubling is 1.7K.

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Paper provided by Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics in its series Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics with number 0510.

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Date of creation: Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:rpi:rpiwpe:0510
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.economics.rpi.edu/
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  1. Hui Liu & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2003. "Human Activities and Global Warming: A Cointegration Analysis," Working Papers 0307E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
  2. Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages S145-59, Supplemen.
  3. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  4. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
  5. David I. Stern, 2004. "A Multicointegration Model of Global Climate Change," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0406, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
  6. Engsted, Tom & Haldrup, Niels, 1999. " Multicointegration in Stock-Flow Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(2), pages 237-54, May.
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