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World Trade as the Adjustment Mechanism of Agriculture to Climate Change

  • Roxana Julia

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute,1403 Park Boulevard, Troy, NY, 12180,USA)

  • Faye Duchin

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy NY 12180-3590, USA)

This paper evaluates the role of trade as mechanism of economic adjustment to the impacts of climate change on agriculture. The study uses a model of the world economy able to reflect changes in comparative advantage; the model is used to test the hypotheses that trade can assure that, first, satisfying global agricultural demand will not be jeopardized, and, second, general access to food will not decrease. The hypotheses are tested for three alternative scenarios of climate change; under each scenario, regions adjust to the climatic assumptions by changing the land areas devoted to agriculture and the mix of agricultural goods produced, two of the major mechanisms of agricultural adaptation. We find that trade makes it possible to satisfy the world demand for agricultural goods under the changed physical conditions. However, access to food decreases in some regions of the world. Other patterns also emerge that indicate areas of concern in relying on trade as a mechanism for the adjustment of agriculture to likely future changes in climate.

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File URL: http://www.economics.rpi.edu/workingpapers/rpi0507.pdf
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Paper provided by Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics in its series Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics with number 0507.

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Date of creation: May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:rpi:rpiwpe:0507
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.economics.rpi.edu/
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  1. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economics Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  2. Hertel, Thomas W. & Timothy O. Randhir, 1999. "Trade Liberalization as a Vehicle for Adapting to Global Warming," GTAP Working Papers 398, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  3. Duchin, Faye & Lange, Glenn-Marie, 1995. "The choice of technology and associated changes in prices in the U.S. economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 335-357, August.
  4. Arndt, Channing & Robinson, Sherman & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Parameter estimation for a computable general equilibrium model: a maximum entropy approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 375-398, May.
  5. Faye Duchin, 2005. "A world trade model based on comparative advantage with m regions, n goods, and k factors," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 141-162.
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