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World Trade as the Adjustment Mechanism of Agriculture to Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Roxana Julia

    () (Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute,1403 Park Boulevard, Troy, NY, 12180,USA)

  • Faye Duchin

    () (Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy NY 12180-3590, USA)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the role of trade as mechanism of economic adjustment to the impacts of climate change on agriculture. The study uses a model of the world economy able to reflect changes in comparative advantage; the model is used to test the hypotheses that trade can assure that, first, satisfying global agricultural demand will not be jeopardized, and, second, general access to food will not decrease. The hypotheses are tested for three alternative scenarios of climate change; under each scenario, regions adjust to the climatic assumptions by changing the land areas devoted to agriculture and the mix of agricultural goods produced, two of the major mechanisms of agricultural adaptation. We find that trade makes it possible to satisfy the world demand for agricultural goods under the changed physical conditions. However, access to food decreases in some regions of the world. Other patterns also emerge that indicate areas of concern in relying on trade as a mechanism for the adjustment of agriculture to likely future changes in climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Roxana Julia & Faye Duchin, 2005. "World Trade as the Adjustment Mechanism of Agriculture to Climate Change," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0507, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:rpi:rpiwpe:0507
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    File URL: http://www.economics.rpi.edu/workingpapers/rpi0507.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duchin, Faye & Lange, Glenn-Marie, 1995. "The choice of technology and associated changes in prices in the U.S. economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 335-357, August.
    2. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economics Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Faye Duchin, 2005. "A world trade model based on comparative advantage with m regions, n goods, and k factors," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 141-162.
    4. Arndt, Channing & Robinson, Sherman & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Parameter estimation for a computable general equilibrium model: a maximum entropy approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 375-398, May.
    5. Randhir, Timothy O. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2000. "Trade Liberalization As A Vehicle For Adapting To Global Warming," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-14, October.
    6. Schimmelpfennig, David & Lewandrowski, Jan & Tsigas, Marinos & Parry, Ian, 1996. "Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: Issues of Longrun Sustainability," Agricultural Economics Reports 262033, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Oliver Schenker, 2013. "Exchanging Goods and Damages: The Role of Trade on the Distribution of Climate Change Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(2), pages 261-282, February.
    2. Roxana Juliá & Faye Duchin, 2013. "Land Use Change and Global Adaptations to Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(12), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Hjort, Ingrid, 2016. "Potential Climate Risks in Financial Markets: A Literature Overview," Memorandum 01/2016, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    4. Dobes Leo & Jotzo Frank & Stern David I., 2014. "The Economics of Global Climate Change: A Historical Literature Review," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(3), pages 281-320, December.
    5. Schenker, Oliver & Stephan, Gunter, 2011. "Buying Greenhouse Gas Insurance: International Trade and the Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability," Papers 219, World Trade Institute.
    6. Schenker, Oliver & Stephan, Gunter, 2012. "Terms-of-trade and the funding of adaptation to climate change and variability: An empirical analysis," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-056, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    7. Lining He & Faye Duchin, 2009. "Regional Development In China: Interregional Transportation Infrastructure And Regional Comparative Advantage," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 3-22.
    8. Dobes, Leo, 2012. "Adaptation to Climate Change: Formulating Policy under Uncertainty," Working Papers 249390, Australian National University, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy.
    9. Faye Duchin, 2007. "Energy and the Global Economy," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0704, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
    10. Schenker, Oliver, 2010. "Transporting goods and damages. The role of trade on the distribution of climate change costs," MPRA Paper 25350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kratena, Kurt, 2008. "From ecological footprint to ecological rent: An economic indicator for resource constraints," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 507-516, January.
    12. Oliver Schenker & Gunter Stephan, 2012. "International Trade and the Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability," Diskussionsschriften dp1201, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    13. Kingwell, Ross S., 2006. "Is Hanrahan sort of right? Will climate change ruin us all?," 2006 Conference (50th), February 8-10, 2006, Sydney, Australia 137961, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    14. Dannenberg, Astrid & Mennel, Tim & Osberghaus, Daniel & Sturm, Bodo, 2009. "The economics of adaptation to climate change: the case of Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-057, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    15. Kingwell, Ross S., 2006. "Climate change in Australia: agricultural impacts and adaptation," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Land and Environment, vol. 0.
    16. Erling Holden & Geoffrey Gilpin, 2013. "Biofuels and Sustainable Transport: A Conceptual Discussion," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(7), pages 1-21, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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