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Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule

  • Pierre L. Siklos

    ()

    (Wilfrid Laurier University and Viessmann Research Centre Waterloo, Canada and The Rimini Centre for Economics Analysis, Italy.)

  • Martin T. Bohl

    ()

    (WestfŠlische Wilhelms-University MŸnster, Germany)

This paper estimates forward-looking and forecast-based Taylor rules for France, Germany, Italy, and the euro area. Performing extensive tests for over-identifying restrictions and instrument relevance, we find that asset prices can be highly relevant as instruments in policy rules. While asset prices improve Taylor rule estimates, different assets prove most relevant across countries and this result could be seen as complicating the tasks of the European Central Bank. Encompassing tests show that forecast-based outperform forward-looking Taylor rules. A policy implication is that central banks ought to release their own forecasts and the basis upon which they are generated.

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Paper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 32-07.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
Date of revision: Jul 2007
Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:32-07
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