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The Unholy Trinity: Fat Tails, Tail Dependence, and Micro-Correlations

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  • Kousky, Carolyn

    () (Resources for the Future)

  • Cooke, Roger M.

    () (Resources for the Future)

Abstract

Recent events in the financial and insurance markets, as well as the looming challenges of a globally changing climate point to the need to re-think the ways in which we measure and manage catastrophic and dependent risks. Management can only be as good as our measurement tools. To that end, this paper outlines detection, measurement, and analysis strategies for fat-tailed risks, tail dependent risks, and risks characterized by micro-correlations. A simple model of insurance demand and supply is used to illustrate the difficulties in insuring risks characterized by these phenomena. Policy implications are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Kousky, Carolyn & Cooke, Roger M., 2009. "The Unholy Trinity: Fat Tails, Tail Dependence, and Micro-Correlations," Discussion Papers dp-09-36-rev.pdf, Resources For the Future.
  • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-09-36-rev.pdf
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    File URL: http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/RFF-DP-09-36-REV.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neil A. Doherty & Harris Schlesinger, 2001. "Insurance Contracts and Securitization," CESifo Working Paper Series 559, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Carolyn Kousky & Erzo Luttmer & Richard Zeckhauser, 2006. "Private investment and government protection," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 73-100, September.
    3. Ladoucette, Sophie A. & Teugels, Jef L., 2006. "Analysis of risk measures for reinsurance layers," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 630-639, June.
    4. Kousky, Carolyn & Cooke, Roger, 2009. "Climate Change and Risk Management: Challenges for Insurance, Adaptation, and Loss Estimation," Discussion Papers dp-09-03-rev, Resources For the Future.
    5. Erwann Michel-Kerjan & Frederic Morlaye, 2008. "Extreme Events, Global Warming, and Insurance-Linked Securities: How to Trigger the “Tipping Point”," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 33(1), pages 153-176, January.
    6. Milidonis, Andreas & Grace, Martin F., 2008. "Tax-Deductible Pre-Event Catastrophe Loss Reserves: The Case of Florida," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(01), pages 13-51, May.
    7. Colin F. Camerer & Howard Kunreuther, 1989. "Decision processes for low probability events: Policy implications," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 565-592.
    8. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ceballos, Francisco, 2016. "Estimating spatial basis risk in rainfall index insurance: Methodology and application to excess rainfall insurance in Uruguay," IFPRI discussion papers 1595, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Benjamin Jones & Michael Keen & Jon Strand, 2013. "Fiscal implications of climate change," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(1), pages 29-70, February.
    3. Masih-Tehrani, Behdad & Xu, Susan H. & Kumara, Soundar & Li, Haijun, 2011. "A single-period analysis of a two-echelon inventory system with dependent supply uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1128-1151, September.
    4. Bozic, Marin & Newton, John & Thraen, Cameron S. & Gould, Brian W., 2012. "Livestock Gross Margin Insurance for Dairy: Designing Margin Insurance Contracts to Account for Tail Dependence Risk," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124718, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Gernot Wagner & Richard Zeckhauser, 2012. "Climate policy: hard problem, soft thinking," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 507-521, February.
    6. Clovis Freire, 2011. "Social and Economic Impact of Disasters: Estimating the Threshold between Low and High Levels of Risk," MPDD Working Paper Series WP/11/15, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    7. repec:spr:eurjdp:v:5:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s40070-017-0071-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Michael Hanemann, 2010. "The Impact of Climate Change: An Economic Perspective," Chapters,in: Climate Change Policies, chapter 2 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Marc N. Conte & David L. Kelly, 2016. "An Imperfect Storm: Fat-Tailed Hurricane Damages, Insurance and Climate Policy," Working Papers 2016-01, University of Miami, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    risk; fat tails; tail dependence; micro-correlations; insurance; natural disasters;

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics

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