Tactical Voting and Voter's Sophistication in British Elections
Although tactical voting attracts a great deal of attention, it is very hard to measure as it requires knowledge of both individuals' voting choices as well as their unobserved preferences. In this paper, we present a simple empirical strategy to nonparametrically identify tactical voting patterns directly from balloting results. This approach allows us to study the magnitude and direction of strategic voting as well as to verify which information voters and parties take into account to determine marginal constituencies. We show that tactical voting played a signiﬁcant role in the 2010 election, mainly for Liberal-Democratic voters supporting Labour. Moreover, our results suggest that voters seem to form their expectations based on a national swing in vote shares rather than newspaper guides published in the main media outlets or previous election outcomes. We also present some evidence that suggests that campaign spending is not driving tactical voting.
|Date of creation:||18 Apr 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.qut.edu.au/research/research-projects/queensland-behavioural-economics-group-qube|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Himmelweit, Hilde T. & Biberian, Marianne Jaeger & Stockdale, Janet, 1978. "Memory for Past Vote: Implications of a Study of Bias in Recall," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(03), pages 365-375, July.
- Duch, Raymond M. & Palmer, Harvey D., 2002. "Strategic Voting in Post-Communist Democracy?," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(01), pages 63-91, January.
- Fieldhouse, E. A. & Pattie, C. J. & Johnston, R. J., 1996. "Tactical Voting and Party Constituency Campaigning at the 1992 General Election in England," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 403-418, July.
- Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2008.
"Prediction Accuracy of Different Market Structures – Bookmakers versus a Betting Exchange,"
0096, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU), revised 2009.
- Franck, Egon & Verbeek, Erwin & Nüesch, Stephan, 2010. "Prediction accuracy of different market structures -- bookmakers versus a betting exchange," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 448-459, July.
- Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2008. "Prediction Accuracy of Different Market Structures – Bookmakers versus a Betting Exchange," Working Papers 0025, University of Zurich, Center for Research in Sports Administration (CRSA), revised 2009.
- Meirowitz, Adam, 2005. "Polling games and information revelation in the Downsian framework," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 464-489, May.
- Alvarez, R. Michael & Nagler, Jonathan, 2000. "A New Approach for Modelling Strategic Voting in Multiparty Elections," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 57-75, January.
- Satterthwaite, Mark Allen, 1975. "Strategy-proofness and Arrow's conditions: Existence and correspondence theorems for voting procedures and social welfare functions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 187-217, April.
- David P. Myatt, 2007. "On the Theory of Strategic Voting -super-1," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 255-281.
- Johnston, R. J. & Pattie, C. J., 1991. "Tactical Voting in Great Britain in 1983 and 1987: An Alternative Approach," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 95-108, January.
- R. Johnston & C. Pattie, 1992. "Using an entropy-maximizing procedure to estimate territorial social indicators: An introduction and illustration," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 235-256, November.
- Gibbard, Allan, 1973. "Manipulation of Voting Schemes: A General Result," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 587-601, July.
- Paul W. Rhode & Koleman S. Strumpf, 2004. "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 127-141, Spring.
- Gschwend, Thomas, 2004. "Comparative Politics of Strategic Voting: A Hierarchy of Electoral Systems," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-41, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qut:qubewp:wp011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dipa Sarkar)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.