Exit Polls, Turnout, and Bandwagon Voting: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal eff ect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 12 percentage points. Our study is the fi rst clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the e ffect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we fi nd that exit poll information signi ficantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.
|Date of creation:||14 Mar 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.qut.edu.au/research/research-projects/queensland-behavioural-economics-group-qube|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1981.
"Pseudo maximum likelihood methods : theory,"
CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange)
- Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010.
"Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data,"
MIT Press Books,
The MIT Press,
edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, June.
- Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262232197, June.
- Battaglini, Marco, 2004.
"Sequential Voting with Abstention,"
05-19-2004, Princeton University, Research Program in Political Economy.
- Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996.
"Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-32, Nov.-Dec..
- Leslie E. Papke & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1993. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(k) Plan Participation Rates," NBER Technical Working Papers 0147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven Callander, 2007. "Bandwagons and Momentum in Sequential Voting," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 653-684.
- Matsusaka, John G, 1995. " Explaining Voter Turnout Patterns: An Information Theory," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 84(1-2), pages 91-117, July.
- Plott, Charles & Hung, Angela, 1998.
"Information Cascades: Replication and an Extension to Majority Rule and Conformity Rewarding Institutions,"
1051, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Angela A. Hung & Charles R. Plott, 2001. "Information Cascades: Replication and an Extension to Majority Rule and Conformity-Rewarding Institutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1508-1520, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qut:qubewp:wp008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dipa Sarkar)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.