Superannuation: Switching and Roulette Wheels
The introduction of choice has resulted in Australia’s superannuation system providing unprecedented flexibility (through increased investment options and the timing choices) for members to optimise their expected benefits. This paper examines the impact of switching between investment options using a normalised ranked return or “roulette wheel” approach developed by Bauer and Dahlquist (2001) for the Australian setting. The paper tests various switching strategies for both single-sector and blended options, for the period 1985–2005, finding that members require forecast accuracy of around 70% to be successful at market timing. Finally, the paper considers the impact of switching strategies on accumulated balances.
|Date of creation:||01 May 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||Michael E. Drew is in the School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. The author acknowledges the financial support of the Australian Research Council’s Discovery Project funding scheme (#DP0452336, “Modelling the Risk of Defined Contribution Superannuation Plans”). The editorial contribution of Hazel Bateman (Guest Forum Editor) is sincerely appreciated, as are the comments from two anonymous reviewers. All remaining errors are the sole responsibility of the author.|
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- James Tobin, 1956. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 14, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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- Becker, Connie & Ferson, Wayne & Myers, David H. & Schill, Michael J., 1999. "Conditional market timing with benchmark investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 119-148, April.
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