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Superannuation: Switching and Roulette Wheels

Listed author(s):
  • Michael E. Drew


The introduction of choice has resulted in Australia’s superannuation system providing unprecedented flexibility (through increased investment options and the timing choices) for members to optimise their expected benefits. This paper examines the impact of switching between investment options using a normalised ranked return or “roulette wheel” approach developed by Bauer and Dahlquist (2001) for the Australian setting. The paper tests various switching strategies for both single-sector and blended options, for the period 1985–2005, finding that members require forecast accuracy of around 70% to be successful at market timing. Finally, the paper considers the impact of switching strategies on accumulated balances.

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Paper provided by School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology in its series School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series with number 216.

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Length: 12
Date of creation: 01 May 2007
Handle: RePEc:qut:dpaper:216
Note: Michael E. Drew is in the School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. The author acknowledges the financial support of the Australian Research Council’s Discovery Project funding scheme (#DP0452336, “Modelling the Risk of Defined Contribution Superannuation Plans”). The editorial contribution of Hazel Bateman (Guest Forum Editor) is sincerely appreciated, as are the comments from two anonymous reviewers. All remaining errors are the sole responsibility of the author.
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  1. Connie Becker & Wayne Ferson & David Myers & Michael Schill, 1998. "Conditional Market Timing with Benchmark Investors," NBER Working Papers 6434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. J. Tobin, 1958. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86.
  3. Robert Faff & David R. Gallagher & Eliza Wu, 2005. "Tactical Asset Allocation: Australian Evidence," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 30(2), pages 261-282, December.
  4. Becker, Connie & Ferson, Wayne & Myers, David H. & Schill, Michael J., 1999. "Conditional market timing with benchmark investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 119-148, April.
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