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A Test of Momentum Trading Strategies in Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from the G7

Author

Listed:
  • Rob Bianchi
  • Michael E. Drew
  • John Polichronis

Abstract

In this trading strategy study, we ask three questions. First, does momentum exist in foreign exchange markets? Second, what is the impact of transactions costs on excess returns? And, third, can a consolidated trading signal garner excess returns and, if so, what is the source of such returns? Using total return momentum strategies in the foreign exchange markets of the G7 for the period 1980 through 2004, the answers from this study are as follows: we find evidence of momentum; however, such momentum appears transitory, particularly for longer look back periods. As expected, transaction costs have a material negative impact on excess returns. Finally, a consolidated signal garners excess returns; however, a bootstrap simulation finds the source of these returns is a function of autocorrelation.

Suggested Citation

  • Rob Bianchi & Michael E. Drew & John Polichronis, 2004. "A Test of Momentum Trading Strategies in Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from the G7," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 182, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
  • Handle: RePEc:qut:dpaper:182
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    File URL: http://external-apps.qut.edu.au/business/documents/discussionPapers/2004/DP%20No.%20182%20-%20Drew,%20Biancia,%20Poli.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Narasimhan Jegadeesh, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, April.
    2. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    3. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
    4. Brozynski, Torsten & Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2003. "The Use of Momentum, Contrarian and Buy-&-Hold Strategies: Survey Evidence from Fund Managers," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-290, Leibniz Universit├Ąt Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakult├Ąt.
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    Cited by:

    1. Crossland, Jarrod & Li, Bin & Roca, Eduardo, 2013. "Is the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) informationally efficient? Evidence from momentum-based trading strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 10-23.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange; momentum; trading rules;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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