A multivariate GARCH analysis of the domestic transmission of energy commodity prices and volatility: A comparison of the peak and off-peak periods in the Australian electricity spot market
This paper examines the transmission of spot electricity prices and price volatility among the five Australian electricity markets in the National Electricity Market (NEM): namely, New South Wales (NSW), Queensland (QLD), South Australia (SA), Snowy Mountains Hydroelectric Scheme (SNO) and Victoria (VIC). A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model is used to identify the source and magnitude of innovations and spillovers. The results indicate the inability of the existing network of interconnectors to create a substantially integrated national electricity market and that, for the most part, the sizeable differences in peak and off-peak spot prices between most of the regions will remain, at least in the short term. However, own-volatility and cross-volatility spillovers are significant for nearly all markets, indicating the presence of strong ARCH and GARCH effects. Strong own and cross-persistent volatility are also evident in all Australian regional electricity markets. This indicates that while the limited nature of the interconnectors between the separate regional spot markets prevents full integration of these markets, shocks or innovations in particular markets still exert an influence on price volatility.
|Date of creation:||20 Feb 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: GPO Box 2434, BRISBANE QLD 4001|
Web page: http://www.bus.qut.edu.au/faculty/economics/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 1999. "Cointegration analysis of spot electricity prices: insights on transmission efficiency in the western US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 435-448, October.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
- Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei, 2000. "The Impact of Financial Liberalization on Stock Price Volatility in Emerging Markets," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 321-339, June.
- Dunne, Peter G., 1999. "Size and book-to-market factors in a multivariate GARCH-in-mean asset pricing application," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 35-52.
- Terry Robinson & Andrzej Baniak, 2002. "The volatility of prices in the English and Welsh electricity pool," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1487-1495.
- Karolyi, G Andrew, 1995. "A Multivariate GARCH Model of International Transmissions of Stock Returns and Volatility: The Case of the United States and Canada," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-25, January.
- Kearney, Colm & Patton, Andrew J, 2000. "Multivariate GARCH Modeling of Exchange Rate Volatility Transmission in the European Monetary System," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 29-48, February.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Chris Brooks & Olan T. Henry & Gita Persand, 2002. "The Effect of Asymmetries on Optimal Hedge Ratios," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 333-352, April.
- Brennan, Donna & Melanie, Jane, 1998. "Market power in the Australian power market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 121-133, April.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:122-50 is not listed on IDEAS
- Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-62, July.
- De Vany, Arthur S & Walls, W David, 1999. "Price Dynamics in a Network of Decentralized Power Markets," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 123-40, March.
- Robert Wilson, 2002. "Architecture of Power Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1299-1340, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qut:dpaper:140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Angela Fletcher)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.