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Market Timing and Selectivity: Evidence from Australian Equity Superannuation Funds

Author

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  • Michael E. Drew
  • Madhu Veeraraghavan
  • Vanessa Wilson

Abstract

In this performance evaluation study, two questions are addressed. First, do active fund managers possess macro and micro forecasting skills that deliver superior risk-adjusted returns? Second, what is the nature of market timing/stock selectivity trade off in the generation of alpha? The answers from this study are as follows: as an industry, managers delivered inferior returns for superannuation investors for the period 1991 through 1999. The study provides little evidence that the Australian funds management industry holds sufficient macro and/or micro forecasting abilities to generate positive alpha. While previous research has found that inferior market timing decisions are compensated for by superior stock selection skills, this study finds no substantive inverse relationship between timing and selectivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael E. Drew & Madhu Veeraraghavan & Vanessa Wilson, 2002. "Market Timing and Selectivity: Evidence from Australian Equity Superannuation Funds," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 105, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
  • Handle: RePEc:qut:dpaper:105
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    File URL: http://external-apps.qut.edu.au/business/documents/discussionPapers/2002/DP%20No%20105.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Russ Wermers, 2000. "Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Decomposition into Stock-Picking Talent, Style, Transactions Costs, and Expenses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1655-1703, August.
    3. Lee, Cheng Few & Rahman, Shafiqur, 1990. "Market Timing, Selectivity, and Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(2), pages 261-278, April.
    4. Hallahan, Terrence A. & Faff, Robert W., 1999. "An examination of Australian equity trusts for selectivity and market timing performance," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 387-402, November.
    5. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    6. Henriksson, Roy D, 1984. "Market Timing and Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 73-96, January.
    7. Mark Grinblatt & Sheridan Titman, "undated". "Portfolio Performance Evaluation: Old Issues and New Insights," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 22-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    8. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation: A Comparison of Benchmarks and Benchmark Comparisons," NBER Working Papers 1721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Lehmann, Bruce N & Modest, David M, 1987. " Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation: A Comparison of Benchmarks and Benchmark Comparisons," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 233-265, June.
    10. Grant, Dwight, 1977. "Portfolio Performance and the "Cost" of Timing Decisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 837-846, June.
    11. Jagannathan, Ravi & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1986. "Assessing the Market Timing Performance of Managed Portfolios," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 217-235, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kathleen Goffey & Andrew Worthington, 2002. "Motor Vehicle Usage Patterns in Australia: A Comparative Analysis of Driver, Vehicle & Purpose Characteristics for Household & Freight Travel," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 117, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Performance evaluation; Timing; Selectivity.;

    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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