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Market Timing and Selectivity: Evidence from Australian Equity Superannuation Funds

  • Michael E. Drew
  • Madhu Veeraraghavan
  • Vanessa Wilson

In this performance evaluation study, two questions are addressed. First, do active fund managers possess macro and micro forecasting skills that deliver superior risk-adjusted returns? Second, what is the nature of market timing/stock selectivity trade off in the generation of alpha? The answers from this study are as follows: as an industry, managers delivered inferior returns for superannuation investors for the period 1991 through 1999. The study provides little evidence that the Australian funds management industry holds sufficient macro and/or micro forecasting abilities to generate positive alpha. While previous research has found that inferior market timing decisions are compensated for by superior stock selection skills, this study finds no substantive inverse relationship between timing and selectivity.

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File URL: http://external-apps.qut.edu.au/business/documents/discussionPapers/2002/DP%20No%20105.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology in its series School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series with number 105.

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Date of creation: 20 Feb 2002
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Handle: RePEc:qut:dpaper:105
Contact details of provider: Postal: GPO Box 2434, BRISBANE QLD 4001
Web page: http://www.bus.qut.edu.au/faculty/economics/Email:


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  1. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation: A Comparison of Benchmarks and Benchmark Comparisons," NBER Working Papers 1721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jagannathan, Ravi & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1986. "Assessing the Market Timing Performance of Managed Portfolios," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 217-35, April.
  3. Henriksson, Roy D, 1984. "Market Timing and Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 73-96, January.
  4. Hallahan, Terrence A. & Faff, Robert W., 1999. "An examination of Australian equity trusts for selectivity and market timing performance," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 387-402, November.
  5. Lee, Cheng Few & Rahman, Shafiqur, 1990. "Market Timing, Selectivity, and Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(2), pages 261-78, April.
  6. Grant, Dwight, 1977. "Portfolio Performance and the "Cost" of Timing Decisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 837-46, June.
  7. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  8. Russ Wermers, 2000. "Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Decomposition into Stock-Picking Talent, Style, Transactions Costs, and Expenses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1655-1703, 08.
  9. Lehmann, Bruce N & Modest, David M, 1987. " Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation: A Comparison of Benchmarks and Benchmark Comparisons," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 233-65, June.
  10. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
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