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Persistencies in the Labour Market

  • Paul Frijters
  • Maarten Lindeboom
  • Gerard van den Berg

    (School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology)

Using longitudinal income-tax registers, we study how past labour market outcomes affect current labour market transition rates. We focus on hysteresis effects of the durations and incidence of previous spells out of work. We estimate flexible multi-state Mixed Proportional Hazard specifications for transition rates between employment, unemployment, and welfare/non-participation. Our main finding is that after longer periods of employment with high income, individuals' transition rates from unemployment to employment increase. Longer periods of non-employment generally decrease future transition rates to work, and sometimes also from work. The quantitative magnitude of persistency and hysteresis effects on inequality is modest.

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File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/RePEc/es2000/1303.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology in its series School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series with number 087a.

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Date of creation: 15 Jun 2000
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Handle: RePEc:qut:dpaper:087a
Contact details of provider: Postal: GPO Box 2434, BRISBANE QLD 4001
Web page: http://www.bus.qut.edu.au/faculty/economics/
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  1. Cohen, Daniel, 1999. "Welfare Differentials Across French and US Labour Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2114, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460 Elsevier.
  3. Blau, David M, 1994. "Labor Force Dynamics of Older Men," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 117-56, January.
  4. Ljungqvist, Lars & Sargent, Thomas J., 1997. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 178, Stockholm School of Economics.
  5. Gregg, Paul, 2001. "The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Adult Unemployment in the NCDS," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages F626-53, November.
  6. Audra J. Bowlus & Jean-Marc Robin, 2004. "Twenty Years of Rising Inequality in U.S. Lifetime Labour Income Values," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71, pages 709-742, 07.
  7. de Jong, Philip & Lindeboom, Maarten & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2006. "Screening Disability Insurance Applications," IZA Discussion Papers 1981, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Lynch, Lisa M, 1989. "The Youth Labor Market in the Eighties: Determinants of Re-employment Probabilities for Young Men and Women," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 37-45, February.
  9. Lindeboom, M. & Van Der Berg, G.J., 1991. "Heterogeneity in Models for Bivariate Survival : the Importance of the Mixing Distribution," Papers 430, Groningen State, Institute of Economic Research-.
  10. Anthony B. Atkinson & Wiemer Salverda, 2005. "Top Incomes In The Netherlands And The United Kingdom Over The 20th Century," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(4), pages 883-913, 06.
  11. Anna Christina D'Addio & Bo E. Honoré, . "Duration Dependence and Timevarying Variables in Discrete Time Duration Models," Economics Working Papers 2002-13, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  12. Arulampalam, Wiji, 2002. "State Dependence in Unemployment Incidence: Evidence for British Men Revisited," IZA Discussion Papers 630, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Lindbeck, Assar, 1995. "Hazardous Welfare-State Dynamics," Working Paper Series 428, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  14. Burgess, Simon & Propper, Carol & Rees, Hedley & Shearer, Arran, 2003. "The class of 1981: the effects of early career unemployment on subsequent unemployment experiences," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 291-309, June.
  15. Choi, HwaJung & Shin, Donggyun, 2002. "Do past unemployment spells affect the duration of current unemployment?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 157-161, October.
  16. Omori, Yoshiaki, 1997. "Stigma Effects of Nonemployment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 394-416, April.
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