Asymmetric Information Arrival and the Short-Run Dynamics of Australian Dollar Volatility: a Mixture of Distributions Approach
Contemporary commentators point to excess volatility within the FX market as an indicator of market inefficiency. It is thought that the excessive volatility is being driven by speculation. Policy options have emerged which focus on bounding volatility via government regulation of speculation. These options make implicit assumptions; one, that volatility is excessive and two, that it is speculation which is driving volatility. What is not sufficiently understood is the role public information arrival plays in terms of explaining returns and its volatility impact. It is the purpose of this paper to simply model Australian Dollar returns and volatility with public information arrival, which has been classified into categories so as to ascertain whether total information arrival or the arrival of specific types of information is related to changes in returns and volatility. We use an EGARCH model so as to pick up the asymmetric impacts of good and bad news. We find evidence from both a GARCH and EGARCH model that public information plays an important role in the determination of AUD returns and volatility and that good news impacts are less then negative ones. We also find that economic information in relation to full information set has a greater relationship to volatility. This has some interesting implications in terms of the volatility debate. Rather then regulating speculation, it may be more relevant to clarify information.
|Date of creation:||20 Jan 2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: GPO Box 2434, BRISBANE QLD 4001|
Web page: http://www.bus.qut.edu.au/faculty/economics/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990.
"Alternative models for conditional stock volatility,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
- Adrian R. Pagan & G. William Schwert, 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," NBER Working Papers 2955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," Papers 89-02, Rochester, Business - General.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Stock, James H, 1987. "Measuring Business Cycle Time," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1240-61, December.
- Takatoshi Ito & Robert F. Engle & Wen-Ling Lin, 1990.
"Where Does the Meteor Shower Come From? The Role of Stochastic Policy Coordination,"
NBER Working Papers
3504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ito, Takatoshi & Engle, Robert F. & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1992. "Where does the meteor shower come from? : The role of stochastic policy coordination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 221-240, May.
- G. William Schwert, 1989.
"Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87,"
NBER Working Papers
2954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999.
"The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
99-08, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-059, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Torben Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Working Papers 6961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Melvin, Michael, 1994. "Bid--ask spreads and volatility in the foreign exchange market : An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 355-372, May.
- Melvin, Michael & Tan, Kok-Hui, 1996. "Foreign Exchange Market Bid-Ask Spreads and the Market Price of Social Unrest," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 329-41, April.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Domowitz, Ian, 1993. " Trading Patterns and Prices in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1421-43, September.
- Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "Are exchange rates macroeconomic phenomena?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 19-30.
- Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
- Stock, James H., 1987. "Measuring Business Cycle Time," Scholarly Articles 3425950, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Collinge, Robert A., 1994. "Dampening exchange rate volatility: A micro alternative to macro policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 113-118, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qut:dpaper:073. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Angela Fletcher)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.