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Equilibrium Selection in Sequential Games with Imperfect Information

  • Jon X. Eguia


    (University of Bristol)

  • Aniol Llorente-Saguer


    (Queen Mary University of London)

  • Rebecca Morton


    (New York University)

  • Antonio Nicolò


    (University of Manchester)

Games with imperfect information often feature multiple equilibria, which depend on beliefs off the equilibrium path. Standard selection criteria such as passive beliefs, symmetric beliefs or wary beliefs rest on ad hoc restrictions on beliefs. We propose a new selection criterion that imposes no restrictions on beliefs: we select the action profile that is supported in equilibrium by the largest set of beliefs. We conduct experiments to test the predictive power of the existing and our novel selection criteria in two applications: a game of vertical multi-lateral contracting, and a game of electoral competition. We find that our selection criterion outperforms the other selection criteria.

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Paper provided by Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 717.

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Date of creation: Apr 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp717
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  1. Schmidt, David & Shupp, Robert & Walker, James M. & Ostrom, Elinor, 2003. "Playing safe in coordination games:: the roles of risk dominance, payoff dominance, and history of play," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 281-299, February.
  2. Eric Avenel, 2012. "Upstream Capacity Constraint and the Preservation of Monopoly Power in Private Bilateral Contracting," Post-Print halshs-00932430, HAL.
  3. Harsanyi John C., 1995. "A New Theory of Equilibrium Selection for Games with Incomplete Information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 318-332, August.
  4. Catherine C. de Fontenay & Joshua S. Gans, 2005. "Vertical Integration in the Presence of Upstream Competition," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(3), pages 544-572, Autumn.
  5. Rey, Patrick & Vergé, Thibaud, 2003. "Bilateral Control with Vertical Contracts," IDEI Working Papers 202, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  6. Marco Pagnozzi & Salvatore Piccolo, 2010. "Vertical Separation with Private Contracts," CSEF Working Papers 251, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 09 Jul 2011.
  7. Cabrales, Antonio & Garcia-Fontes, Walter & Motta, Massimo, 2000. "Risk dominance selects the leader: An experimental analysis," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 137-162, January.
  8. repec:oup:restud:v:76:y:2009:i:3:p:1023-1048 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Selten,Reinhard, . "An axiomatic theory of a risk dominance measure for bipolar games with linear incentives," Discussion Paper Serie B 252, University of Bonn, Germany.
  10. McAfee, R Preston & Schwartz, Marius, 1994. "Opportunism in Multilateral Vertical Contracting: Nondiscrimination, Exclusivity, and Uniformity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 210-30, March.
  11. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1991. "Game Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061414, June.
  12. John C. Harsanyi & Reinhard Selten, 1988. "A General Theory of Equilibrium Selection in Games," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262582384, June.
  13. Jon X. Eguia & Antonio Nicolò, 2011. "On the Efficiency of Partial Information in Elections," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 234, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  14. Martin, Stephen & Normann, Hans-Theo & Snyder, Christopher M, 2001. "Vertical Foreclosure in Experimental Markets," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 32(3), pages 466-96, Autumn.
  15. Buehler, Benno & Schuett, Florian, 2014. "Certification and minimum quality standards when some consumers are uninformed," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 493-511.
  16. Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
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