Nonlinear Modelling of Autoregressive Structural Breaks in a US Diffusion Index Dataset
This paper applies a new model of structural breaks developed by Kapetanios and Tzavalis (2004) to investigate if there exist structural changes in the mean reversion parameter of US macroeconomic series. Ignoring such type of breaks may lead to spurious evidence of unit roots in the autoregressive parameters of economic series. Our model specifies that both the timing and size of breaks are stochastic. We apply the model to a variety of macroeconomic and finance series from the US.
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- Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1994.
"Large Shocks, Small Shocks, and Economic Fluctuations: Outliers in Macroeconomic Time Series,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 181-200, April-Jun.
- Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1991. "Large shocks, small shocks, and economic fluctuations: outliers in macroeconomic times series," Research Paper 9101, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895.
- Kapetanios, George, 2000. "Small sample properties of the conditional least squares estimator in SETAR models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 267-276, December.
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