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A Nonlinear Approach to Public Finance Sustainability in Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Georgios Chortareas

    (University of Connecticut)

  • George Kapetanios

    () (Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Merih Uctum

    (City University of New York)

Abstract

The debt crisis in Latin America is associated with the large fiscal imbalances of the 1980s; therefore public finance sustainability occupies the center of stabilization efforts in these economies. The literature examining this question in emerging economies is surprisingly scant and this paper aims at filling this gap. We analyze sustainability for a sample of Latin American countries, employing unit root tests that incorporate nonlinear alternative hypotheses. These tests capture the thresholds or corridor regimes that international agreements or markets impose on emerging economies' public finances. We show that support for sustainability substantially improves when such nonlinearities are taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios & Merih Uctum, 2003. "A Nonlinear Approach to Public Finance Sustainability in Latin America," Working Papers 486, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp486
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    File URL: http://www.econ.qmul.ac.uk/media/econ/research/workingpapers/archive/wp486.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ernesto Stein & Ernesto Talvi & Alejandro Grisanti, 1999. "Institutional Arrangements and Fiscal Performance: The Latin American Experience," NBER Chapters,in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 103-134 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19.
    3. Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1993. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 11-26, March.
    4. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    5. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1991. "Fiscal deficits, public debt, and government solvency: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 354-380, December.
    6. Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "The behavior of US public debt: a nonlinear perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-125, December.
    7. Feve, Patrick & Henin, Pierre-Yves, 2000. " Assessing Effective Sustainability of Fiscal Policy within the G-7," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(2), pages 175-195, May.
    8. Smith, Gregor W & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Persistent Deficits and the Market Value of Government Debt," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 31-44, Jan.-Marc.
    9. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
    10. Wickens, M. R. & Uctum, Merih, 1993. "The sustainability of current account deficits : A test of the US intertemporal budget constraint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 423-441, May.
    11. Cipollini, Andrea, 2001. "Testing for Government Intertemporal Solvency: A Smooth Transition Error Correction Model Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(6), pages 643-655, December.
    12. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-287, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "Some thoughts on accurate characterization of stock market indexes trends in conditions of nonlinear capital flows during electronic trading at stock exchanges in global capital markets," MPRA Paper 49921, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods

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