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Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns

  • Jonathan A. Parker

    (Princeton University and NBER)

  • Christian Julliard

    (Princeton University)

This paper evaluates the central insight of the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM) that an asset’s expected return is determined by its equilibrium risk to consumption. Rather than measure the risk of a portfolio by the contemporaneous covariance of its return and consumption growth — as done in the previous literature on the CCAPM and the pattern of crosssectional returns — we measure the risk of a portfolio by its ultimate consumption risk defined as the covariance of its return and consumption growth over the quarter of the return and many following quarters. While contemporaneous consumption risk explains little of the variation in observed average returns across the Fama and French 25 portfolios, ultimate consumption risk at a horizon of three years explains a large fraction of this variation.

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Paper provided by Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Discussion Papers in Economics. in its series Working Papers with number 138.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:pri:wwseco:dp229
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  1. Cochrane, John H, 1996. "A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 572-621, June.
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  7. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Jonathan A. Parker & Motohiro Yogo, 2001. "Luxury Goods and the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 8417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  13. Fernando Restoy & Philippe Weil, 1995. "Approximate Equilibrium Asset Prices," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9515, Banco de Espa�a.
  14. Lynch, Anthony W, 1996. " Decision Frequency and Synchronization across Agents: Implications for Aggregate Consumption and Equity Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1479-97, September.
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  16. Raymond Kan & Chu Zhang, 1999. "Two-Pass Tests of Asset Pricing Models with Useless Factors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 203-235, 02.
  17. Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Julliard, 2003. "Consumption Risk and Cross-Sectional Returns," NBER Working Papers 9538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1995. "Near-Rationality, Heterogeneity, and Aggregate Consumption," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 29-48, February.
  19. Jonathan A. Parker, 1999. "Spendthrift in America? On Two Decades of Decline in the U.S. Saving Rate," NBER Working Papers 7238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Hanno N. Lustig & Stijn G. Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance, and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1167-1219, 06.
  21. Motohiro Yogo, 2006. "A Consumption-Based Explanation of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 539-580, 04.
  22. Mark Rubinstein, 1976. "The Valuation of Uncertain Income Streams and the Pricing of Options," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 407-425, Autumn.
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