Consumption Risk And Expected Stock Returns
Following the textbook CCAPM, the consumption risk of an asset is typically measured as the contemporaneous covariance of the marginal utility of consumption and the return on that asset. When measured this way, consumption risk is too small to explain the observed equity premium, is negatively related to expected excess returns over time, and fails to explain the cross-sectional differences in average returns of the Fama and French (25) portfolios. This paper evaluates the central insight of the CCAPM — that consumption risk determines returns — but take the model less literally by allowing the possibility that households do not instantaneously and completely adjust consumption to the news revealed about wealth in a period. The long-term consumption risk of the aggregate market is signficantly larger than the contemporaneous risk and is positively related to expected excess returns over time. The long-term consumption risk of different portfolios largely explains the observed differences in average returns.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (609) 258-4800
Web page: http://webdb.princeton.edu/dbtoolbox/query.asp?qname=Papers_Econ_IndexWRecent
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1982.
"Consumption, Asset Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations,"
NBER Working Papers
0838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shiller, Robert J., 1982. "Consumption, asset markets and macroeconomic fluctuations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 203-238, January.
- Jonathan A. Parker, 2001. "The Consumption Risk of the Stock Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 279-348.
- Lynch, Anthony W, 1996. " Decision Frequency and Synchronization across Agents: Implications for Aggregate Consumption and Equity Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1479-97, September.
- Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2002.
"The 6D Bias and the Equity Premium Puzzle,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1947, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985.
"The equity premium: A puzzle,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
- David A. Marshall & Nayan G. Parekh, 1999. "Can Costs of Consumption Adjustment Explain Asset Pricing Puzzles?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 623-654, 04.
- Matthew D. Shapiro & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985.
"Risk and Return: Consumption Beta Versus Market Beta,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
738, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1986. "Risk and Return: Consumption Beta versus Market Beta," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 452-59, August.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Jonathan A. Parker & Motohiro Yogo, 2001.
"Luxury Goods and the Equity Premium,"
NBER Working Papers
8417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- S. Grossman & R. Shiller, .
"The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Price,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
18-80, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-27, May.
- Sanford J. Grossman & Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," NBER Working Papers 0564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April.
- Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
- Mark Rubinstein, 1976. "The Valuation of Uncertain Income Streams and the Pricing of Options," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 407-425, Autumn.
- Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
- Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 1999.
"Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: a cross-sectional test when risk premia are time-varying,"
93, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pri:wwseco:dp223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Long)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.