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The Deterrence Effect of Prison: Dynamic Theory and Evidence

  • David S. Lee

    (Princeton University and NBER)

  • Justin McCrary

    (University of California, Berkeley and NBER)

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    Using administrative, longitudinal data on felony arrests in Florida, we exploit the discontinuous increase in the punitiveness of criminal sanctions at 18 to estimate the deterrence effect of incarceration. Our analysis suggests a 2 percent decline in the log-odds of offending at 18, with standard errors ruling out declines of 11 percent or more. We interpret these magnitudes using a stochastic dynamic extension of Becker’s (1968) model of criminal behavior. Calibrating the model to match key empirical moments, we conclude that deterrence elasticities with respect to sentence lengths are no more negative than -0.13 for young offenders.

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    Paper provided by Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies. in its series Working Papers with number 1168.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:pri:cepsud:189lee
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Princeton, NJ 08544-1021
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